The Trump-era Justice Department’s criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell rips at a seam few markets dare contemplate: the legal weaponisation of monetary policy. Gold’s sprint to an unprecedented $4,600/oz and the dollar’s slide (–0.3%) reveal a reflex flight from U.S. paper toward hard assets, a classic “debasement trade” (reuters.com)

The last time a White House leaned this hard on the Fed—Richard Nixon’s pressure on Arthur Burns in 1971—policy mis-steps fed a decade-long inflationary spiral. Today’s backdrop is worse: global debt at 236 % of GDP, AI-fuelled cap-ex booms that crave cheap money, and emerging-market central banks now openly questioning reserve-currency loyalties (theguardian.com)

Powell now stands not just for rate paths but for institutional legitimacy. If prosecution chills Fed autonomy, investors will price a lasting “risk-of-Washington” premium into Treasuries, pushing capital toward commodities and non-U.S. assets—echoes of 1979 yet in a multipolar financial system. As Mohamed El-Erian warns, “undermining a central bank’s credibility is the fastest route to financial self-harm.” (theguardian.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

Tech Sovereignty in Focus

A Dutch court is set to rule on the future of Nexperia, a critical chipmaker, potentially wresting control from its Chinese owner, Wingtech Technology, over allegations of improper technology transfers (Bloomberg). This case highlights the growing Western resolve to safeguard strategic semiconductor supply chains. Our take: This is not just a corporate dispute; it’s a flashpoint in the global tech decoupling. Expect more aggressive state interventions to protect key technologies, a necessary evil perhaps, but one that chills open markets and invites reciprocal protectionism. True innovation thrives on competition, not state-managed industrial policy.

Geopolitical Bargaining Chips

As tensions over rare earths simmer, driving up shares in Japanese engineering firm Toyo Engineering amid speculation Japan will seek non-Chinese suppliers, the EU is simultaneously trying to preempt a crisis with the Trump administration over Greenland (Bloomberg, Politico.eu). Brussels is reportedly preparing a significant investment package to secure its interests in the resource-rich territory. Meanwhile, following the US operation in Venezuela, the Kremlin’s muted response suggests President Putin sees an opportunity for a broader geopolitical bargain with Washington (WSJ, Politico.eu).

Trade Defies Tariffs

Defying years of tariff pressure, China has reported a record trade surplus for 2025, signaling a resilient export machine that continues to outpace global competitors (WSJ). This economic strength persists even as its domestic coal imports saw their largest annual drop in a decade, reflecting a shift in energy consumption patterns (Bloomberg). The enduring surplus demonstrates the limits of protectionist trade policy; integrated global supply chains and competitive pricing often override political barriers. For consumers, this has meant continued access to affordable goods, but for policymakers, it’s a frustrating lesson in economic gravity.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Gold and Silver Hit Fresh Highs Amid Geopolitical Risks
— Wall Street Journal

China’s Trade Surplus Reaches Record, Defying Expectations of Tariff-Driven Slowdown
— Wall Street Journal

Dutch Court Weighs Next Step in Fight Over Chipmaker Nexperia
— Bloomberg

Venezuelan Opposition’s Calls to Oust Maduro Aided Legal Case for Removal, Memo Says
— Wall Street Journal

Toyo Engineering’s Surge Burns Shorts as Japan Seeks Rare Earths
— Bloomberg

China’s Coal Imports Post Biggest Annual Drop as Soybeans Climb
— Bloomberg

Asymmetric Warfare’s New Edge

Ukraine is sharpening its asymmetric capabilities, evidenced by a drone attack on the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. The strike, which injured four people including a child, signals Kyiv’s growing capacity to project force deep into Russian territory, targeting logistics and military-industrial sites. Previous attacks in the region have reportedly hit a drone manufacturing plant (Ansa, Ukrainska Pravda). This strategy forces Moscow to divert significant air-defense assets away from the front lines to protect its own urban centers. It’s a cost-effective method to disrupt Russian operations and challenge the Kremlin’s narrative that the conflict is distant, demonstrating how technological innovation can counterbalance a numerically superior conventional military.

France’s Untaxed Fortunes

A political firestorm is brewing in Paris over allegations that thousands of France’s wealthiest individuals pay no income tax. The head of the National Assembly’s finance committee is now demanding precise data from the finance ministry (Bercy), escalating a sensitive debate on fiscal fairness (Le Monde). From a free-market standpoint, this isn’t merely a leftist talking point; it exposes the perils of an overly complex and burdensome tax code. Excessive regulation and labyrinthine fiscal laws invariably create loopholes that disproportionately benefit those with the resources for sophisticated tax planning. The ensuing debate may fuel calls for higher taxes, but the real lesson is the need for radical simplification—a flatter, more transparent system could broaden the tax base and enhance compliance.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

“Kontinuität und keine Experimente” in Sachsen-Anhalt
— ZDF

La gauche s’alarme que des milliers de très riches puissent échapper à l’impôt
— Le monde

Jamie Campbell Bower, the actor who survived Vecna in ‘Stranger Things’ — and himself
— El Pais

Trump zu Teheran: “Wir werden sehr hart reagieren”
— ZDF

Stuttgarts Lauf hält an: 3:2 gegen Frankfurt
— ZDF

Coppa Italia: Roma-Torino; Arena ‘per me dopo il gol di oggi non cambia nulla’
— Ansa