Washington’s overnight volte-face on its Greenland gambit is less a diplomatic thaw than a market-driven reality check. After the S&P 500 clawed back 1.2 % when President Trump scrapped his threatened 10 % tariffs on eight EU states, investors—not ambassadors—proved again that capital flows can discipline geopolitical adventurism. (apnews.com)

Yet the “framework” announced in Davos is long on optics, short on substance. Trump still asserts “right, title and ownership” of a Danish territory, echoing America’s 1946 and 2019 purchase bids, and triggering EU troop deployments to Nuuk. Europe’s unified push-back recalls the 1956 Suez moment: allies tolerate arrogance until it jeopardises their sovereignty—and then close ranks. (apnews.com)

Strategically, Washington’s fixation on Arctic real estate masks a deeper anxiety: as Russia and China weaponise melting sea-lanes, the U.S. lacks a coherent polar doctrine. A baseless land-grab is no substitute for sustained investment in ice-class fleets or multilateral science. As strategist Parag Khanna warns, “the map of connectivity trumps the map of division.” The White House should heed that cartographic logic before markets deliver the next lesson. (Parag Khanna, Connectography, 2016)

— The Gist AI Editor

Transatlantic Trust Fractures

European leaders are convening an emergency summit in Brussels, having reportedly concluded the U.S. is an unreliable partner following President Trump’s address at Davos (Politico.eu). Trump renewed his desire to acquire Greenland, stating he would not use force but adding a warning: “You can say no, and we will remember” (WSJ). From our perspective, this transactional approach to long-standing alliances fundamentally misreads the value of stable, predictable relationships, which are the bedrock of global trade and security. Forcing allies to constantly second-guess intentions injects costly uncertainty into the international system.

Indo-Pacific Strains Mount

South Korea’s economy, a bellwether for global trade, grew just 1.0% in 2025, its slowest pace in five years, as political turmoil and tariff pressures took their toll (WSJ). This economic vulnerability is amplified by deteriorating regional security. Concurrently, reports indicate Beijing’s intelligence operations have successfully penetrated Taiwan’s military, a move aimed at subverting the island’s defenses from within (WSJ). These twin pressures on the economic and security fronts underscore the growing fragility across a vital commercial corridor, a risk that markets have yet to fully price in.

Russian Oil Revenue Falters

Moscow’s energy leverage is weakening as prices for its flagship Urals crude sold to China hit an unprecedented low (Bloomberg). The slump follows a pullback by Indian buyers, demonstrating how market competition directly impacts price. Russia’s 2025 oil and gas tax revenues consequently fell by 24% to a five-year low, far short of the levels required to balance its budget (FT). This is a clear illustration of how sanctions, when they create sufficient friction and risk, can effectively harness market forces to drain the resources of authoritarian regimes.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

South Korea Economy Weakened in 2025 as Tariffs Took a Toll
— Wall Street Journal

Oil Edges Higher, Aided by Prospects of Stronger Demand
— Wall Street Journal

Philippines’ Marcos Advised by Doctors to Rest After Discomfort
— Bloomberg

The Chinese Spy Machine Infiltrating Taiwan’s Military
— Wall Street Journal

Art of the deal: Greenland edition
— Financial Times

Flagship Russian Oil Sinks in China After India Buyers Pull Back
— Bloomberg

The Immunology of Optimism

A noteworthy study indicates that a positive mental state may materially enhance the immune response to vaccinations (The Guardian). This finding introduces a fascinating, low-cost variable into public health calculus, suggesting that individual mindset can act as a powerful co-factor in medical efficacy. While far from a panacea—as underscored by the concurrent and unexplained rise of scabies in the UK—it opens a new front for non-pharmaceutical interventions that empower the individual. If psychological disposition can be scientifically shown to boost physiological resilience, it challenges the purely top-down, mandate-heavy approach to public health crises. It’s a compelling argument for the integration of behavioural science into mainstream healthcare strategy, prioritising agency over compliance.

Italy’s Emissions Bill Comes Due

The real-world costs of the EU’s green transition are crystallising. A new analysis projects that the incoming Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2)—a mechanism extending carbon pricing to buildings and transport—will impose significant new burdens on Italian households and businesses (Il Sole 24 Ore). The study, commissioned by industry groups Assogasliquidi-Federchimica, estimates the policy could add up to €600 annually to heating expenses alone. This development forces a critical examination of the chosen regulatory path. While the objective is decarbonisation, the immediate effect is a direct tax on energy consumption that disproportionately hits lower-income households, raising stark questions about the economic viability and distributive consequences of Europe’s climate strategy.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Carney: “Ende einer angenehmen Fiktion, Beginn einer brutalen Realität”
— ZDF

Merz sucht in Davos die Antwort auf Trump
— Politico Europe

How positivity affects health, the rise of scabies and bovine intelligence – podcast
— The Guardian

Tödliche Eifersucht
— ZDF

Der Machtkampf um die Arktis in Karten
— ZDF

Riscaldamento, in arrivo i rincari: dalla tassa sul carbonio fino a 600 euro in più l’anno di spesa
— Il Sole 24 Ore