Washington’s overnight retreat on Greenland tariffs is less about face-saving than power-mapping. Forty-eight hours ago the White House threatened 10 % duties on eight EU economies—rising to 25 % by 1 June—unless they stopped “blocking America’s destiny in the Arctic.” Brussels counter-brandished its new Anti-Coercion Instrument: €93 bn in retaliatory levies. (theguardian.com)

Markets read the climb-down correctly: the Atlantic balance of leverage has shifted. Control of rare-earth supply chains and the icebreaker technology the US lacks now resides with allies such as Finland and Canada, not Wall Street. President Trump’s talk of a “framework deal” masks the fact that Copenhagen and Nuuk were excluded—echoing post-Suez 1956, when colonial shortcuts met multilateral resistance. (apnews.com)

The deeper lesson: in a weaponised economy, sovereignty flows to those who command chokepoints rather than tariffs. Europe’s willingness to deploy legal “trade bazookas” suggests a future where alliances turn transactional unless underpinned by shared industrial capacity. As Dani Rodrik reminds us, “countries that control production networks write the rules of globalisation.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Geopolitical Tremors Rattle Markets

Heightened geopolitical risk is sending investors scrambling for safe-haven assets. President Trump’s announcement that a U.S. “armada” is en route to Iran triggered a significant flight to safety, propelling silver past the $100 per ounce threshold (WSJ). This move signals deep market anxiety over potential military conflict, with investors also piling into gold and industrial metals like copper, anticipating supply chain disruptions. The market’s sharp reaction underscores how quickly political rhetoric can translate into tangible economic shifts, a trend that favors tangible assets over more volatile equities in times of uncertainty.

Tech Sector’s Mixed Signals

The technology landscape presents a complex picture of both promise and peril. Chip manufacturer Intel is struggling to meet the infrastructure demands of the AI boom, with its revenue declining 3.9% year-over-year to $13.7 billion, causing its shares to slide (WSJ). In the private markets, smart ring maker Oura is planning a tender offer for existing investors at a 25% discount to its last funding round, a move designed to provide liquidity and delay the need for a public offering in a challenging market (Bloomberg). This reflects a broader trend of tech valuations coming back to earth after a period of exuberance.

Global Economic Fault Lines

Internationally, significant economic realignments and challenges are emerging. The U.S. and EU are jointly proposing an ambitious $800 billion public-private plan to rebuild Ukraine post-war, contingent on a ceasefire (Politico.Eu). This massive undertaking highlights the West’s long-term strategic commitment to a sovereign Ukraine. Meanwhile, in Brazil, an investigation into what could be the nation’s largest-ever bank fraud is expanding, with police now probing a Rio de Janeiro civil servant pension fund’s investments in Banco Master (Bloomberg). The probe exposes significant governance and regulatory vulnerabilities within one of the world’s major emerging economies.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Silver Surges Past $100/oz on Mounting Geopolitical Risks
— Wall Street Journal

Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Smart Ring Maker Oura Said to Plan Tender Offer at 25% Discount
— Bloomberg

Intel Shares Slide as Costs Pile Up in Bid to Meet AI Demand
— Wall Street Journal

Brazilian Police Target Rio Fund as Banco Master Probe Grows
— Bloomberg

US Oil Markets Start to Feel Impact of Winter Storm Disruptions
— Bloomberg

Berlin-Rome Axis

Germany and Italy are deepening their strategic cooperation, a move that could reshape the EU’s internal power dynamics. In Rome, Chancellor Merz and Prime Minister Meloni signed eight agreements spanning defense and economic competitiveness. This isn’t just diplomatic routine; it signals a concerted effort by two of the EU’s founding members and largest industrial powers to drive a specific agenda. Their joint push for a “deepening of the EU single market” suggests a focus on deregulation and competitiveness, a welcome sign for advocates of free markets. The partnership, however, is a pragmatic alliance of a center-right and a right-wing government, potentially creating a powerful bloc to counter more statist impulses from within the Union. I see this as a clear-eyed move to bolster European industrial capabilities against global competition, but it will inevitably face friction from member states championing more protectionist policies.

Strategic Gulf Pivot

Italy is making a significant diplomatic and economic push into the Gulf, with President Mattarella’s state visit to the UAE from January 27-29 intended to cement a “stable relationship.” This follows a period of strained relations that bottomed out in 2019 over an Italian arms export embargo related to the Yemen conflict. The visit, encompassing both political talks in Abu Dhabi and economic discussions in Dubai, underscores the Gulf’s growing importance as a strategic hub for Italy, extending beyond business to security and logistics. This rapprochement is a pragmatic recognition of geopolitical reality; for Europe, engaging with stable, capital-rich partners in a volatile region is a strategic necessity for energy security and supply chain diversification. This renewed partnership signals a clear Italian foreign policy priority, one that values economic and security interests.

Shadow Diplomacy in Abu Dhabi

The Kremlin is shifting its approach to potential Ukraine negotiations, dispatching a new team to Abu Dhabi that includes a notable intelligence chief. This subtle but significant change in personnel suggests a move away from public posturing towards more discreet, substantive talks. While open conflict continues, the establishment of a backchannel in a neutral, influential hub like the UAE indicates that both sides may be exploring pathways to de-escalation. For markets, any credible step towards negotiation reduces geopolitical risk premiums, particularly in energy and commodities. The presence of intelligence leadership, rather than purely diplomatic figures, implies the discussions are serious and focused on core security issues. This is not peace, but it is a shift in the strategic calculus worth watching closely.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Proroga per medici al lavoro fino a 72 anni, esclusi universitari
— Ansa

Mattarella negli Emirati, il Golfo hub strategico per l’Italia
— Ansa

‘It’s the sovereignty of the country’: Guinea-Bissau says US vaccine study suspended
— The Guardian

Wie der Kreml auf das Abu-Dhabi-Treffen zur Ukraine blickt
— ZDF

Deutschland und Italien vertiefen Partnerschaft
— ZDF

Morto l’attore Carlo Cecchi
— Ansa