Washington’s draft security-guarantee accord for Ukraine—declared “100 percent ready” by President Zelenskyy after trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi—marks the first concrete U.S. commitment to Kiev’s post-war defense since 1994’s ill-fated Budapest Memorandum. (apnews.com)

Yet the text remains hostage to a larger bargain: U.S. envoys hint the guarantees will activate only if Kyiv cedes much of the Donbas to a “neutral” zone—effectively translating battlefield stalemate into territorial loss. (ft.com) History warns that security pledges without sovereign borders invite revisionism; compare the 1938 Anglo-French “guarantee” to Poland that crumbled within a year. Markets, meanwhile, sense the risk: Ukrainian Eurobonds slipped 40 bps on Monday as investors priced prolonged uncertainty despite nominal progress.

I read this moment less as a peace breakthrough than as evidence of Washington’s shifting cost-benefit calculus. A war that once symbolized the defense of a rules-based order now confronts U.S. election fatigue and budget ceilings; Europe still hesitates to fill the gap. The devil will be in the ratification—where Congress, Kremlin and Kyiv each wield a veto. As Anne-Marie Slaughter reminds us, “Power lies in the ability to set the terms of the network.”

— The Gist AI Editor

EU’s Orbit, Germany’s Stumble

The European Union has activated its own secure satellite communications network, a significant step in its €10.6 billion strategy to achieve digital sovereignty and lessen its dependence on US providers like Starlink (Bloomberg). While a move toward strategic autonomy is understandable, our view is that state-funded mega-projects often lag the innovation and efficiency of private-sector competition. The real test will be whether this network can deliver value without becoming another bureaucratic sinkhole. Brussels is aiming for the stars, but taxpayers are footing the bill for a journey that the market might have made more cheaply.

German Stagnation, Tech’s Nuclear Option

Germany’s government has released a sobering annual economic report, forecasting a mere one percent growth for the year, largely propped up by state infrastructure spending (Politico.eu). This sluggish performance from Europe’s traditional economic engine underscores the urgent need for supply-side reforms rather than more public expenditure. Meanwhile, a powerful market signal is emerging from the tech sector, where firms are turning to nuclear power to meet the voracious energy demands of AI data centers (Bloomberg). This pragmatic, private-sector pivot towards a reliable, zero-emissions energy source is a welcome contrast to state-managed economic lethargy.

Eastern European Infighting

Further east, a political feud has erupted in the Czech Republic, where the president has accused his foreign minister of “blackmail” over a ministerial appointment (Politico.eu). Such internal squabbles risk distracting from the pressing geopolitical and economic challenges facing Central Europe. Stable governance is the bedrock of a predictable investment climate, a principle that appears momentarily forgotten in Prague. Political capital is a finite resource, best spent on enhancing liberty and prosperity, not on internal power plays.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

American Airlines Gives Upbeat Outlook Following $325 Million Revenue Hit From Shutdown
— Wall Street Journal

Auto & Transport Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Kimberly-Clark Posts Higher Profit Ahead of Kenvue Vote
— Wall Street Journal

Gemini to Close NFT Marketplace Nifty Gateway in February
— Bloomberg

EU Deploys First Satellite Service in Bid to Limit US Dependence
— Bloomberg

NextEra Offers Nuclear Power Amid Red-Hot Demand From Tech Firms
— Bloomberg

Eastern Flank Fractures

Slovakia intends to legally challenge the EU’s recent import ban on Russian gas, joining Hungary in a direct confrontation with Brussels over energy policy. Prime Minister Robert Fico argues the decision, pushed through with a qualified majority vote rather than unanimity, tramples national sovereignty on a vital security issue. He claims the move violates foundational EU principles of subsidiarity—the idea that decisions should be taken at the lowest possible level of governance. This coordinated legal pushback from Bratislava and Budapest signals a significant crack in the EU’s united front against Russia. It elevates the persistent tension between the bloc’s collective geopolitical ambitions and the individual economic and energy realities of its member states.

Olympic Security Sovereignty

The Italian government is moving to contain political backlash following confirmation that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents will assist with security at the Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani insisted the American agents’ role will be strictly confined to protecting the U.S. delegation, with no broader law enforcement powers on Italian streets (Politico, Ansa). The development nonetheless tests the boundaries of security cooperation and national sovereignty. For libertarians, the presence of a foreign agency with a controversial record, even for a specific mission, raises legitimate questions about state power and accountability. Amid the controversy, Italy’s financial stability appears steady, with the BTP-Bund spread—a key indicator of investor risk perception comparing Italian and German 10-year bond yields—holding firm around 59 basis points (Ansa).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Schenderlein: “Leistung muss wieder mehr zählen”
— ZDF

Ice: ‘Nostri agenti alle Olimpiadi invernali’. Piantedosi vede l’ambasciatore. Tajani, ‘Non saranno nelle strade
— Ansa

Antéchrist, apocalypse : ce qu’a dit Peter Thiel devant l’Académie des sciences morales et politiques
— Politico Europe

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Zverev kämpft sich ins Halbfinale – jetzt wartet Alcaraz
— ZDF

Borsa: l’Europa è positiva ma cauta, Wall Street è attesa contrastata
— Ansa