Gold’s two-week free-fall is now a full-blown rout. Futures briefly pierced $4,500/oz in New York on Monday, extending the metal’s slide to 17 % since its January 19 record high and erasing roughly $320 bn from bullion-backed ETFs worldwide. Silver, down 29 % in the same window, signals that algorithmic de-risking—not jewellery demand—is in the driver’s seat. (apnews.com)

Why the sudden loss of faith in history’s ultimate “insurance policy”? A surge in real yields after President Trump floated Kevin Warsh for Fed chair has revived carry-trade math, while AI-heavy equities keep absorbing liquidity. Wall Street banks still talk up long-term demand from Asian central banks, yet their own commodity desks report the sharpest weekly outflows since April 2013’s gold crash. (wsj.com)

This episode exposes a deeper pattern: in an era of hyper-financialisation, even supposed safe assets are hostage to policy theatre and momentum algorithms. Price is no longer a thermostat for risk—it’s a poll of shifting narratives. As economist Nouriel Roubini reminds us, “Safe havens become stampedes when narratives flip.”

The Gist AI Editor

Shifting Alliances & Domestic Tensions

A vigorous debate over European strategic autonomy is intensifying, as NATO chief Mark Rutte’s assertion of the continent’s reliance on U.S. defense draws sharp criticism (Politico.eu). This comes as allies weigh the long-term implications of a potential shift in American foreign policy. The core of the matter is whether Europe should develop a more independent defense capability, a move that would represent a significant pivot in post-war security architecture. Proponents argue for a stronger European pillar within NATO, suggesting a more balanced and resilient alliance.

Domestically, political landscapes are also experiencing tremors. In the UK, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is gaining unexpected traction in Scotland, a nation that voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union (Bloomberg). Recent polling suggests the party could become a significant force in Scottish politics, challenging the established order and potentially reshaping the ongoing debate around Scottish independence and its relationship with a post-Brexit UK.

Meanwhile, in the United States, President Trump has escalated his dispute with a leading academic institution, stating he is now seeking “$1 billion in damages” from Harvard University (Bloomberg). This action follows a contentious period regarding federal funding and allegations of wrongdoing, signaling a deepening rift between the administration and elite educational bodies. The conflict raises fundamental questions about academic independence and the role of government in higher education.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Farage Sets Sights on Election Upset in Brexit-Skeptical Scotland
— Bloomberg

Bitcoin Stalls After Weak Rebound as Options Signal Caution
— Bloomberg

OpenAI’s ChatGPT push triggers senior staff exits
— Financial Times

Trump Says He’s Seeking $1 Billion From Harvard University
— Bloomberg

Palantir Achieves Another Revenue Record With $1.41 Billion Quarter
— Wall Street Journal

Google Is Spending Big to Build a Lead in the AI Energy Race
— Wall Street Journal

Berlin’s Warsaw Pivot

Germany’s overture to Poland signals a strategic recalibration at the EU’s core. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil’s visit to Warsaw, ostensibly a courtesy call, was a clear nod to Poland’s rising influence, underscored by its >3% economic growth—a figure Berlin openly envies (ZDF). Klingbeil’s push for more EU defense spending to be directed to European firms is the key takeaway. This isn’t just about bolstering the continent’s industrial base; it’s a quiet admission that the Franco-German axis is insufficient for Europe’s security challenges. By courting a hawkish, economically vibrant Poland, Germany is diversifying its strategic partnerships. The ripple effect is a potential power shift eastward within the EU, strengthening a bloc more skeptical of Russian intentions and challenging traditional French-led defense industrial prerogatives. (ZDF)

The Processed Food Prohibitionists

A new front in the nanny-state wars is opening, this time targeting ultra-processed foods (UPFs). A US academic study is framing the issue not as one of consumer choice, but of public health necessity, explicitly arguing that items like sweets should be regulated similarly to tobacco (The Guardian). This narrative, which labels UPFs as “addictive” substances engineered for consumption, is gaining traction and provides intellectual ammunition for public health officials across Europe eager to expand their regulatory reach. While couched in the language of health, this represents a significant potential encroachment on individual liberty and market freedom. The likely consequence will be calls for “sin taxes,” marketing bans, and stark warning labels, treating personal dietary choices as a matter for state intervention rather than individual responsibility. (The Guardian)

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Klingbeil in Polen: Kurztrip zum Wachstums-Nachbarn
— ZDF

We.Do, da Azimut sostegno per il piano industriale
— Il Sole 24 Ore

Ultra-processed foods should be treated more like cigarettes than food – study
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Bahnrad-EM: Teutenberg holt Gold, Frauen-Vierer Silber
— ZDF

BBC reports from Oslo court ahead of rape trial of Crown Princess’s son
— BBC News