Japan’s landslide has up-ended Asia’s strategic chessboard. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party now commands 352 lower-house seats—well above the two-thirds hurdle needed to trigger a constitutional referendum—while the Nikkei 225 leapt nearly 4 % on the news, the index’s best election-day pop since 1986. (ft.com)

Markets may cheer stimulus and arms contracts, yet Article 9 revision would overturn the very pacifist clause that underwrote Japan’s post-1945 economic miracle. Europe spent three decades learning that re-militarisation raises budgets faster than it raises security; Japan already carries public debt at 246 % of GDP. Voters endorsed strength, but can they finance it without cannibalising welfare as its society ages? (euronews.com)

Washington welcomes a sturdier ally against Beijing, while China warns of “a return to militarism.” If Tokyo’s referendum passes, East Asia inherits a precedent: constitutional self-binding can be unwound once domestic politics align. In a world of elastic norms, institutions matter only as long as electorates wish them to. As Yuval Noah Harari notes, “Any large‐scale human cooperation is ultimately rooted in shared fictions.” The question is whose fiction prevails next. —The Gist AI Editor

Japan Signals Constitutional Shift

Following a significant election victory, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is renewing the push to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution, specifically Article 9, which renounces war. Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured 316 of the 465 seats in the lower house, a supermajority that allows them to initiate constitutional amendments. The proposed changes aim to formally recognize the country’s Self-Defense Forces as a conventional military, a move supporters argue is necessary amid rising regional tensions, including threats from China. However, the path forward requires a two-thirds majority in the upper house, which the ruling coalition currently lacks, and majority approval in a national referendum.

US-Iran Tensions Simmer in Strait of Hormuz

Washington has issued a new advisory for commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, urging U.S.-flagged ships to remain as far as possible from Iranian waters. The U.S. Maritime Administration guidance comes amid simmering tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program and follows President Trump’s executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imports from any country purchasing Iranian goods. While indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran are reportedly ongoing in Oman, the heightened maritime warnings underscore the persistent risk of escalation in a waterway vital to the free flow of commerce.

Hong Kong’s Authoritarian Grip Tightens

In a stark illustration of Beijing’s expanding control, media mogul and prominent democracy advocate Jimmy Lai was sentenced to 20 years in prison under the territory’s sweeping national security law. Lai, 78, founder of the now-closed Apple Daily newspaper, is the most high-profile figure to be sentenced under the law imposed in 2020, which has effectively criminalized dissent. His conviction follows the recent disbanding of the city’s last active pro-democracy group, the League of Social Democrats, signaling the near-total suppression of organized political opposition. More than 260 people have been arrested under the security law, cementing a climate of fear and self-censorship.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

FirstFT: Sanae Takaichi targets changes to Japan’s constitution after election landslide
— Financial Times

Standard Chartered finance chief leaves for Apollo
— Financial Times

Obesity linked to 70% higher chance of contracting serious infectious disease
— Financial Times

Singapore Dollar Slightly Strengthens Amid Strong Risk Appetite
— Wall Street Journal

Chappell Roan Leaves Wasserman Agency in Epstein Fallout
— Wall Street Journal

Oil Falls on Possible Position Adjustments; May Be Supported by U.S.-Iran Tensions
— Wall Street Journal

Portugal’s Centrist Blockade

In Portugal, a broad political coalition has delivered a decisive electoral outcome, installing socialist António José Seguro as president in a landslide victory over far-right contender André Ventura. The critical development was not merely the win, but the method: a “cordón sanitario,” or sanitary cordon, where voters from across the political spectrum unified behind Seguro in the second round. This strategic consolidation, which saw Seguro nearly double his initial support, was an explicit, cross-partisan effort to isolate what many view as illiberal forces. While effective, this tactic underscores a deepening political polarization. It transforms elections from contests of ideas into defensive maneuvers, potentially alienating voters who feel their primary choices are subsumed by a larger imperative to block a single candidate. The long-term risk is the hollowing out of the political center.

Warsaw’s Rule-of-Law Reset

The EU Commission has formally moved to close its Article 7 proceedings against Poland, signaling a significant rapprochement after years of friction over judicial reforms (ZDF). The procedure, initiated in 2017, was a response to concerns that the previous government was undermining democratic checks and balances. Its termination acknowledges Warsaw’s recent efforts to reverse those changes. In a stark illustration of the political turnover, the architect of the controversial reforms, former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, is now facing corruption allegations and has reportedly requested asylum in Hungary as an arrest warrant is issued (ZDF). This dual development—official reconciliation with Brussels and the legal pursuit of a former top official—marks a pivotal moment in Poland’s relationship with the EU and its internal struggle for accountability.

Japan’s NATO Bridge to Ukraine

Tokyo is set to deepen its involvement in European security by contributing to a NATO initiative for Ukraine. Japan plans to provide non-lethal equipment, including radar systems, by joining the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (Purl), a NATO framework for coordinating aid. While Japan is a partner and not a member of the Atlantic alliance, this move to channel support directly through a NATO-run mechanism is a notable strategic shift. It demonstrates how security alliances are becoming more flexible and global in response to sustained conflict. For Europe, it secures material support from a G7 partner; for Japan, it signals a more assertive posture on global security issues, directly linking Pacific and European strategic theatres (Ansa).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Polnischer Ex-Justizminister setzt sich ab
— ZDF

Un cordón sanitario frente a la ultraderecha convierte a Seguro en el presidente más votado de la historia de Portugal
— El Pais

Jeffrey Epstein and the scientists – podcast
— The Guardian

Das bringt der Dienstag
— ZDF

Daytona Beach – Biker, Models und Exzesse
— ZDF

Borsa: Milano ritocca i massimi dal 2000, migliore in Europa con Stm e Unicredit
— Ansa