Christine Lagarde’s reported plan to leave the ECB before her mandate ends in October 2027 would hand President Macron—and a Berlin led by Friedrich Merz—the privilege of shaping Europe’s next monetary chief before France’s volatile 2027 election. The Financial Times broke the story; the ECB’s terse “no-decision” reply to Euronews and DW’s confirmation show smoke even if the fire is still contained. (ft.com)

Lagarde steered Frankfurt through COVID-19 and the 11 percent inflation spike of 2022, but five rate cuts since mid-2025 have not revived a flatlining eurozone. Her exit risks politicising what remains Europe’s last technocratic redoubt just as far-right parties edge toward executive power in Paris and Berlin.

Remember Jean-Claude Trichet’s 2011 rate hike on the eve of crisis; leadership timing matters. If the ECB becomes a bargaining chip in electoral chess, the euro’s credibility—not merely its policy path—could be the collateral. As historian Adam Tooze warns, “Central banking is always politics by other means.”

The Gist AI Editor

AI’s Energy Dilemma

The voracious energy appetite of artificial intelligence is creating significant stress on global power grids and commodity markets (WSJ). Global electricity demand from data centers, which power AI, is projected to more than double by 2030, potentially reaching over 945 terawatt-hours (TWh)—equivalent to Japan’s entire current consumption (IEA). This surge is driving a renewed, hard-nosed look at nuclear power for its reliable, carbon-free output, causing a knock-on effect in the uranium market. Uranium prices have risen over 38% in the past year, trading at approximately $89 per pound, as utilities scramble to secure long-term fuel supplies for reactors.

The Great Capex Cycle

Echoing the US shale boom, the AI sector is in the midst of a historic capital expenditure (capex) cycle that reorders investment priorities (Bloomberg). Just as shale firms once spent heavily on drilling, tech giants are now pouring capital into the essential infrastructure of AI: chips and data centers. Consensus estimates project that capital spending by the largest AI-focused tech companies could reach $527 billion in 2026. Our perspective: this massive redirection of capital is a market in action, responding to real demand. However, as the shale experience showed, such booms can lead to overinvestment and volatile returns when enthusiasm outpaces execution.

The core issue is that the digital world has a very physical footprint. The race for AI dominance is not just about algorithms but about securing the immense energy and capital required to power them. This dynamic is creating bottlenecks and opportunities, from uranium mines to power plant construction, fundamentally reshaping markets in ways that are only beginning to become clear.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Spain first to enter race for Lagarde succession at ECB
— Financial Times

Trump adviser says NY Fed economists should be ‘disciplined’ for study on tariffs
— Financial Times

The human cost of Trump’s environmental rollback
— Financial Times

U.S. Arms Sale to Taiwan in Limbo Amid Pressure Campaign From China
— Wall Street Journal

The Fossil Fuel Tycoon Teaming Up With the Rockefellers to Fight Energy Poverty
— Wall Street Journal

Rising Demand for Nuclear Power Pressures Uranium Supply
— Wall Street Journal

Europe’s Digital Sovereignty Push

A significant majority of Europeans, over 73%, are concerned about the continent’s dependence on U.S. technology companies (Proton). This sentiment is translating into policy, with a growing number of EU member states, including France and Spain, proposing social media bans for adolescents and investigating major platforms like Meta, X, and TikTok over child safety concerns (Reuters). These national actions highlight a frustration with the perceived slow pace of EU-wide enforcement under the Digital Services Act (DSA), which allows for fines of up to 6% of a company’s global turnover for non-compliance. The push for digital sovereignty is clear, though it risks escalating trade tensions with the U.S. (The Hindu).

Semiconductor Strategy Gains Traction

The EU is making tangible progress in its mission to double its global market share in semiconductors to 20% by 2030 under the European Chips Act (EU). The initiative, backed by €43 billion in public and private funding, recently granted special status to four major semiconductor projects, streamlining their administrative and permit processes (European Commission). This includes a new joint venture facility in Germany involving TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, and NXP, which is expected to produce 480,000 wafers annually by 2029 (European Commission). The strategy is a direct response to recent supply chain disruptions and aims to reduce critical dependencies on non-EU suppliers.

AI Regulation and Investment Collide

The EU’s landmark Artificial Intelligence Act, the first comprehensive AI legal framework globally, is now in force, with key provisions on prohibited practices taking effect as of February 2025 (European Union). The regulation employs a risk-based approach, banning applications like government-run social scoring while placing stringent requirements on high-risk systems. Simultaneously, the European Innovation Council (EIC) has launched its 2026 work programme, earmarking over €1.4 billion for funding strategic technologies, including AI, and supporting the scale-up of innovative companies (EIC). This dual approach of regulation and investment highlights the EU’s delicate balancing act: fostering innovation while attempting to set a global standard for trustworthy AI.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Ministro giustizia Israele attacca Ue, ‘opera per rovesciare governo’
— Ansa

Il Financial Times: ‘Lagarde lascia prima della fine del mandato’, la Bce frena: ‘Nessuna decisione’
— Ansa

« Le projet d’extension de l’aéroport Roissy – Charles-de-Gaulle est un contresens historique »
— Le monde

Epstein-Files: Warum Xavier Naidoo nicht “mit allem Recht hatte”
— ZDF

Wie leben junge Menschen aus Russland im Exil?
— ZDF

Il gas conclude in forte rialzo a 31,4 euro al Megawattora
— Ansa