Washington’s 10-15-day ultimatum to Tehran is not a negotiating tactic; it is a market-moving countdown. Brent crude nudged $71.9 per barrel, a six-month high, within hours of President Trump’s threat and the dispatch of a second carrier strike group to the Gulf (investing.com). The signal to traders is clear: the world’s narrowest energy artery—the Strait of Hormuz—could again be militarised, with 17 million b/d of oil flows at risk.

Yet the diplomatic geometry is shakier than the theatrics suggest. Iran’s foreign minister floated a counter-proposal “within days,” but it still defends domestic enrichment and missile R&D—the very red lines Trump claims justify force (ft.com). Europe, bruised by last year’s partial embargo, lacks leverage; Beijing has quietly stockpiled crude; Moscow welcomes any U.S. distraction from Ukraine.

History rhymes: every U.S. build-up from 1987’s Earnest Will convoys to 2003’s run-up to Iraq began with deadlines that converted diplomacy into coercion. Unless either side redefines success, markets should price not a deal but disruptive stasis. As Anne-Marie Slaughter warns, “Strategy without empathy is a roadmap to repeating mistakes.” (theguardian.com)

The Gist AI Editor

Trade Wars and Political Wars

Following a Supreme Court decision striking down his authority to levy broad tariffs under emergency powers, President Trump announced he will use other legal avenues to pursue his trade agenda. The move signals a doubling-down on an economically interventionist policy that creates friction with his own party ahead of the midterm elections. The president immediately imposed a new 10% global tariff under a different statute, though this authority is time-limited to 150 days. Our view: While tariffs are pitched as a tool for leverage, they function as a tax on domestic consumers and producers, introducing significant uncertainty that undermines market stability and long-term investment.

Media Merger Clears Antitrust Hurdle

Paramount’s proposed $77.9 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery has cleared an initial U.S. antitrust hurdle, with the waiting period required under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act expiring. This procedural step means the Justice Department has not moved to block the deal yet, but it does not prevent regulators from suing to stop the merger later. The potential consolidation of two major media players raises classical-liberal concerns about market concentration, which can stifle competition and limit consumer choice. A truly free market requires not just the absence of government overreach but also vigilance against the formation of private monopolies that can distort the marketplace.

US Sanctions Tested at Sea

A tanker believed to be carrying Russian fuel is en route to Cuba, presenting a direct challenge to the Trump administration’s economic blockade of the island. The vessel, the Sea Horse, is expected to arrive in early March and could provide critical relief to Cuba’s collapsing state-run energy sector. The shipment is a practical test of U.S. sanctions policy and highlights the unintended consequences of economic blockades, which often drive targeted authoritarian regimes into the arms of other geopolitical rivals. Free and open trade, in our opinion, remains the most potent long-term catalyst for liberalizing closed societies.

Female Billionaires on the Rise

In the U.S., there are now 154 women billionaires, a testament to the dynamic avenues for wealth creation in robust market economies (WSJ). Their fortunes derive from a mix of entrepreneurship, strategic investment, and inheritance, underscoring the diverse paths to capital accumulation. This trend challenges the static, zero-sum view of wealth, illustrating instead that innovation and enterprise continue to generate new value and opportunity. From a libertarian standpoint, this highlights the power of individual achievement and economic liberty in fostering prosperity.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Trump’s New Trade Agenda Is on a Collision Course With Midterms
— Wall Street Journal

How Former Prince Andrew’s Trade-Envoy Role Sowed the Seeds of His Downfall
— Wall Street Journal

Trump to Release the UFO Files. There’s Somehow an ETF for That
— Bloomberg

There Are 154 Billionaire Women in the U.S. Here’s How They Amassed Their Fortunes.
— Wall Street Journal

Paramount Says Regulatory Waiting Period for Warner Bid Ends
— Bloomberg

Cuba-Bound Tanker Carrying Russian Fuels to Test Trump Blockade
— Bloomberg

Rethinking Cancer

A profound shift in cancer research is gaining traction: viewing the disease not as a monolithic enemy to be cured, but as a chronic condition to be managed long-term. Biologist Douglas Hanahan, a key voice in this discourse, argues we don’t strictly need a ‘cure’, but rather “cancer without disease,” transforming it into a manageable state. This perspective aligns with the EU’s strategy, which implicitly acknowledges the chronicity of cancer. Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan, backed by €4 billion, aims to improve quality of life for patients and survivors, a goal central to managing long-term illness (EU Commission). With 2.7 million new diagnoses in the EU annually and projections of a 24% rise by 2035, managing the societal and healthcare burden is paramount (EU Commission). This conceptual pivot from cure to control could reshape research funding and patient care, focusing innovation on therapies that extend high-quality life for years, much like treatments for diabetes or HIV.

Transatlantic Trade Tremors

The EU is in a holding pattern after a US Supreme Court ruling struck down President Trump’s authority to impose sweeping ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, which had included a 15% duty on many EU exports (Euractiv). In response, Trump has vowed a new 10% global tariff under a different authority, creating fresh uncertainty for European businesses (The Hindu). EU officials are “carefully analyzing” the situation and seeking clarity from Washington (TVP World, The Hindu). The European Parliament’s trade committee has scheduled an emergency meeting for Monday, and a key vote to ratify a broader EU-US trade deal, set for Tuesday, is now in jeopardy (Euractiv, TVP World). This legal and political whiplash threatens the stability businesses rely on and could derail efforts to de-escalate trade tensions, with retaliatory measures targeting billions in US exports remaining a distinct possibility (Bruegel).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Interview mit Mario Voigt
— ZDF

What Mexico has gained and lost from its economic relationship with Chavista Venezuela
— El Pais

Douglas Hanahan, biologist: ‘We don’t necessarily need a cure, what we really need is cancer without disease’
— El Pais

Terror und Eskalation
— ZDF

Neuers Pläne sind die Antwort auf Bayerns Torwart-Fragen
— ZDF

Irán se prepara para un ataque de Estados Unidos con despliegue militar, amenaza de guerra híbrida y sitios nucleares fortificados
— El Pais