2026-02-23 • Mexico’s marines ended “El Mencho’s” reign, but violence surged. Cartels persist

Evening Analysis – The Gist

Good evening,

Mexico’s elite marines ended the 15-year reign of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera—mastermind of the CJNG and America’s top fentanyl supplier—yet his death lit the night sky across 20 states with torched buses and roadblocks, leaving at least 26 dead, 25 of them National Guardsmen. (apnews.com)

History warns that beheading cartels rarely beheads the trade: after Arturo Beltrán Leyva’s 2009 killing, homicide totals in Mexico jumped 23 % the next year. Today’s market is even richer; U.S. agents seized 21,100 lb of fentanyl at the southern border in fiscal 2025—enough for five billion lethal doses—underscoring how supply chains outlive their capos. (apnews.com)

Washington hails joint intelligence triumph, Brussels frets over tariff wars, and investors watch peso volatility; yet the structural asymmetry persists—demand north of the Río Grande, fragmented enforcement south of it. As Moisés Naím reminds us, “Power is easier to get, harder to use, and easier to lose.” The question is who grabs it next.

The Gist AI Editor

Evening Analysis • Monday, February 23, 2026

the Gist View

Good evening,

Mexico’s elite marines ended the 15-year reign of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera—mastermind of the CJNG and America’s top fentanyl supplier—yet his death lit the night sky across 20 states with torched buses and roadblocks, leaving at least 26 dead, 25 of them National Guardsmen. (apnews.com)

History warns that beheading cartels rarely beheads the trade: after Arturo Beltrán Leyva’s 2009 killing, homicide totals in Mexico jumped 23 % the next year. Today’s market is even richer; U.S. agents seized 21,100 lb of fentanyl at the southern border in fiscal 2025—enough for five billion lethal doses—underscoring how supply chains outlive their capos. (apnews.com)

Washington hails joint intelligence triumph, Brussels frets over tariff wars, and investors watch peso volatility; yet the structural asymmetry persists—demand north of the Río Grande, fragmented enforcement south of it. As Moisés Naím reminds us, “Power is easier to get, harder to use, and easier to lose.” The question is who grabs it next.

The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

Transatlantic Trade Tremors

European Union lawmakers have halted a vote on a key trade agreement with the U.S., shelving a deal that would have eliminated tariffs on certain American imports (WSJ). This move injects significant uncertainty into transatlantic commerce, stalling progress toward freer markets. From our perspective, this is a step backward, interrupting the potential for increased consumer choice and lower prices that typically accompany tariff removal. The delay signals that political hurdles can still easily obstruct mutually beneficial economic cooperation, a worrying trend for advocates of open trade.

U.S. Manufacturing’s Housing Headache

The slowdown in the U.S. housing market is now tangibly impacting American manufacturers, as sluggish home sales reduce consumer demand for goods like appliances and flooring (WSJ). This illustrates the profound ripple effects of monetary policy on the real economy; as interest rates rise to cool inflation, the resulting chill on housing construction and sales directly curtails factory orders and employment. This downturn serves as a clear example of how interventions in one sector inevitably cascade into others, often with painful consequences for producers and workers.

China’s Robotic Ambitions

Chinese tech firm Honor is set to unveil a humanoid service robot, signaling a strategic push into advanced robotics (Bloomberg). This move highlights the accelerating global race in automation and artificial intelligence, a field ripe for private-sector innovation. The development underscores a broader trend of Chinese companies moving up the value chain, competing not just on manufacturing scale but on technological frontiers. For consumers and businesses worldwide, this increased competition promises to drive down costs and expand the applications for robotic technology in daily life.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Orbán’s Economic Veto

Hungary is once again wielding its veto power, this time to obstruct a planned €90 billion EU credit facility for Ukraine and a new round of sanctions against Russia (ZDF). This isn’t merely political maneuvering; it actively undermines the European Union’s collective financial and security strategy. For markets, it injects another dose of uncertainty, demonstrating how a single member state can stall continent-wide economic policy. The immediate ripple effect is a delay in crucial support for Kyiv, but the long-term damage is to the EU’s credibility as a unified economic power.

Trade Headwinds & Resource Blindspots

As the EU’s trade chief engages with G7 counterparts to parry renewed US tariff threats, a significant internal economic vulnerability is being overlooked (Euronews). Europe continues to export its used vehicles, effectively shipping away a treasure trove of critical raw materials vital for energy and defense technologies (Politico). This policy blindspot jeopardizes long-term industrial security. Meanwhile, energy markets offer a brief respite; the Dutch TTF, a key European benchmark for wholesale natural gas prices, saw futures close down slightly at €31.8 per megawatt-hour (Ansa). This stability is welcome but masks deeper structural risks from potential trade disputes and a failure in resource management.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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