Russia’s overnight barrage—720 strikes on 31 Zaporizhzhia-front settlements and a fresh missile-drone wave that wounded civilians from Kyiv to Kharkiv—lands hours before Ukrainian, Russian and U.S. envoys reconvene in Geneva.(aljazeera.com)

Four years in, Moscow is calibrating firepower to diplomacy: every blackout, every burned apartment block prices additional leverage at the table. History rhymes—think Nixon’s “Christmas Bombing” of Hanoi in 1972—but today’s energy-grid targeting carries a 21st-century macro risk. Bloomberg estimates a one-day 9 % drop in Ukraine’s industrial output per gigawatt lost; the IMF already pegs cumulative war-damage at $525 bn. Europe, meanwhile, absorbed a 0.3 % GDP hit last quarter from war-related energy rerouting—proof that each Kalibr missile reverberates through global supply chains.(theguardian.com)

Diplomats talk ceasefire while artillery writes the minutes. Unless Geneva pairs security guarantees with rapid grid-hardening finance, negotiations risk becoming a revolving door of escalations. “Power is the capacity to define reality and have others respond to your definition,” warned scholar Joseph Nye. At 1464 days, Ukraine’s reality is being drafted in smoke and silicon chips—Geneva must decide whether to notarise it or redraw it.

— The Gist AI Editor

State Actors Rattle Markets

Beijing is actively managing its currency, signaling a tolerance for a weaker yuan to aid its export-driven economy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the risk-reserve requirement for foreign-exchange forwards from 20% to zero, a move that makes it cheaper to bet against the currency (WSJ). This follows a period where the yuan had reached a nearly three-year high against the dollar. In Europe, state intervention is taking aim at Big Tech. Poland is advancing a law to ban social media for children under 15, posing a direct challenge to major US platforms and reflecting a growing European trend toward stricter digital regulation (Bloomberg).

Streaming Wars Consolidate

In the corporate arena, the media landscape is set for a major shake-up. Paramount has effectively won the bidding war for Warner Discovery after Netflix announced it would not raise its offer, deeming the new price no longer “financially attractive” (WSJ, PBS News). Warner’s board had deemed Paramount’s revised $31 per share bid superior to Netflix’s proposal. The potential merger would create a content behemoth, concentrating major assets like HBO Max and the “Harry Potter” franchise, intensifying competition for subscriber dollars.

Russia’s War Economy Shows Cracks

The economic toll of the Ukraine war is becoming more apparent inside Russia. Despite massive military spending propping up its economy, underlying sectors are strained by sanctions and slumping revenues, forcing businesses to seek state support (Bloomberg). With military and security spending consuming roughly half the budget, key industries from auto manufacturing to steel are contracting. This suggests the Kremlin’s war economy is facing significant distortions and may be approaching its sustainable limits.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Trump Diplomats Bashing Europe Get a Sharp Reply: Butt Out
— Wall Street Journal

China’s Yuan Weakens, Dragged by PBOC’s Decision to Lower Shorting Costs
— Wall Street Journal

Paramount Wins Bidding War for Warner Discovery After Netflix Drops Out
— Wall Street Journal

Poland Plans Social Media Ban for Kids in Challenge to US Tech
— Bloomberg

The grand, golden gardens of Lahore
— Financial Times

Son of ‘Gasoline Godfather’ Jailed in Graft Case
— Bloomberg

Sanctions Under Scrutiny

A vocal intervention from the finance ministers of the UK and Sweden is stiffening European resolve on economic pressure against Russia. Rejecting what they term “Putin’s lies” about Russia’s economic resilience, the ministers argue that sanctions are demonstrably working and must be intensified (Politico). Their op-ed serves as a direct counter-narrative to market skepticism, asserting that Russia’s war- footing economy shows clear signs of deterioration. In a significant policy push, they are championing the finalisation of a promised €90bn EU loan package for Ukraine, a critical instrument of financial support. The move signals a strategic pivot towards doubling down on economic containment, betting that sustained financial attrition, not just battlefield dynamics, remains a key to altering Moscow’s calculus. The challenge, however, remains unanimity, with Hungary previously blocking parts of the loan’s approval process.

Kyiv’s Asymmetric Answer

Ukraine has dramatically escalated its drone warfare campaign, with Moscow reporting its air defences intercepted 95 Ukrainian drones overnight (Ansa). The wave of attacks spanned at least 11 regions, from Smolensk near the Belarusian border to Krasnodar in the south, and also targeted assets over the Black and Azov Seas. This represents one of the most geographically widespread and numerically significant drone assaults to date. The strategy appears clear: impose direct costs deep within Russia, disrupt logistics, and challenge the Kremlin’s narrative of a conflict contained to its periphery. For European markets, this signals a new phase of asymmetric warfare where production facilities and infrastructure, previously considered safe, are now viable targets, introducing a new layer of volatility and risk to commodities and supply chains.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Hillary Clinton: Erinnere mich an kein Treffen mit Epstein
— ZDF

Reeves and Svantesson: Don’t believe Putin’s lies. Economic pressure is working
— Politico Europe

Closing the Nutritional gap in cancer care
— Politico Europe

Der Ukraine-Krieg im Zeitraffer
— ZDF

CDU-Politiker Ziemiak: “Die Politik der AfD ist gefährlich”
— ZDF

Hormigas atrapadas en ámbar cuentan cómo era la vida diminuta hace millones de años
— El Pais