The Trump⁠–⁠Lula standoff has lurched from rhetoric to rupture. A 50 % blanket tariff on every Brazilian import—set for August 1—targets a partner that supplies 80 % of the world’s orange-juice and 15 % of U.S. aircraft components. Producers in São Paulo’s citrus belt already see farm-gate prices down 50 % year-on-year, while U.S. grocers face a 533 % duty jump on juice concentrate, in a market where 90 % of supply is imported. (reuters.com, reuters.com)

Washington frames the move as leverage over Brazil’s prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, but weaponising trade to shield an ally reeks of Smoot-Hawley-era hubris; that 1930 tariff shrank U.S. exports 61 % within two years. Today’s risk is broader: Brazil is the G-20’s eighth-largest economy and a critical commodities hub. Retaliation—whether via WTO litigation or counter-tariffs on U.S. soy and aviation services—would ricochet through already-fragile supply chains and inflation-skittish markets. (wsls.com, dw.com)

The deeper signal is strategic: trade policy has become an instrument of personal politics, eroding rules-based order just as U.S.–China frictions pinch semiconductor flows. When trust in institutions collapses, every container ship becomes a bargaining chip. As economist Dani Rodrik warns, “Globalisation works best when it is managed, not weaponised.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Risk-On Records, But Breadth Thins

Wall Street’s rally rolled on: the S&P 500 posted a fourth consecutive all-time high at 5,580, yet fewer than 40 % of its members closed green—classic late-cycle divergence (WSJ). Tesla slid 7 % after a 37 % YoY profit drop, while IBM’s 9 % plunge clipped the Dow. Translation for households: index funds look rosy, but stock-pickers feel the pinch.

AI Becomes a Trade File

Washington’s new “AI Action Plan” will vet advanced-model exports like it already does jet engines, aiming to balance “$200 bn in projected AI service exports by 2030” with security concerns (Bloomberg, FT). Google pre-emptively raised 2025 capex guidance by $10 bn to expand data-center fleets, underscoring how regulatory clarity—friendly or not—shifts real investment within weeks.

Sanctions Bite—And Backfire

An Arizona woman received 8½ years for funneling remote-work wages—up to $6.8 mn—to Pyongyang by placing North Koreans at Nike and other U.S. firms (WSJ, Reuters). The case spotlights loopholes in gig-economy vetting even as Washington tightens crypto and payroll compliance tools.

Tariff Tensions Hit the High Street

Puma warned of a full-year loss after U.S. footwear tariffs sliced 180 bps off Q2 margins and sales fell 9 %—its first red ink since 2013 (FT). Combined with McDonald’s 3 % price hikes outpacing U.S. CPI at 2.5 %, consumers face a pincer of import levies and menu inflation; expect fresh lobbying against the White House’s broader 60 % China-tariff plan.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

American Sentenced to 8½ Years in Prison for Helping North Koreans Get Jobs at Nike, Other U.S. Firms
— Wall Street Journal

Stock Market News, July 24, 2025: S&P Hits Fourth Straight Record; Trade Talks, Earnings in Spotlight
— Wall Street Journal

White House Advisors Discuss How the US Will Export AI | Bloomberg Tech 7/24/2025
— Bloomberg

How McDonald’s Lost Its Value Edge—and Is Trying to Claw It Back
— Wall Street Journal

Puma warns of full-year loss as sales fall and US tariffs bite
— Financial Times

Ein Spaziergang mit Tino Chrupalla
— Politico.Eu

Capital Buffers: When To Pounce

Euro-area supervisors quietly blessed new counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCyB) hikes—0.5 ppts in DE & FR from 1 Oct—leaning on fresh ECB-CEPR evidence that building buffers during profit booms lifts loan volumes by +2 % after two years while cutting failure risk by -15 bps (ECB, CEPR). Expect faster CCyB ratchets across smaller states; higher retained earnings could curb dividend payouts but sharpen banks’ M&A appetite.

Tariff Clock Ticking

Brussels signals a 15 % across-the-board levy compromise with Washington, below Trump’s threatened 30 % blanket tariff due 1 Aug (BBC, Politico). If sealed, EU manufacturers dodge €38 bn in annual duties; if not, expect mirror countermeasures on US aerospace and LNG—raising delivered European gas prices by c.+7 %. I see German FDP ministers lobbying for emergency corporate tax offsets.

Strategic Autonomy Stress-Test

Rubio’s public slap-down of Macron’s U-N Palestinian statehood bid (“schiaffo in faccia”) exposes EU-US fracture on Middle-East choreography (ANSA). Paris may push qualified-majority recognition inside the Council—testing the EU’s foreign-policy veto rule and giving Budapest another bargaining chip on rule-of-law funds.

Ukraine Frontline Optics

Kyiv’s loss of Pokrovsk is militarily minor yet politically loud: the rail hub handled just 4 % of east-bound grain this season (ZDF, UA Rail). Brussels will likely re-route subsidy for alternative corridors, accelerating the Danube-Black Sea dredging project—already funded at €330 m.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Macroprudential policy for banks: Build the countercyclical capital buffer when there is headroom for doing so
— Cepr

Trade deal on US tariffs within reach, says EU, as 1 August deadline nears
— Bbc

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— Zdf

Neustart statt Ruhestand: Thomas Müller will weiterspielen
— Zdf

Militär bis Wirtschaft: Wie stark ist die EU?
— Zdf

Rubio: ‘Usa respingono fermamente piano Macron su Palestina’
— Ansa