2025-08-13 • Modi seeks Trump meet as US tariffs hit India hard.

Morning Intelligence – The Gist

Global markets woke up to a fresh fault-line: Reuters reports that Narendra Modi is scrambling to secure a face-to-face with Donald Trump at next month’s UN General Assembly after the White House doubled U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 50 percent — a levy unmatched since Smoot-Hawley. (reuters.com)

The numbers are brutal. India’s $190 billion two-way trade with the U.S. now carries a surcharge worth roughly 1 percent of Indian GDP; UBS calculates that gems, textiles and chemicals alone risk an $8 billion hit. Financial Times notes the rupee has slid 4 percent in a week and New Delhi’s vaunted “Mission 500” trade target is suddenly a mirage. (ft.com)

Yet tariffs are symptom, not disease. CNN’s earlier scoop on Trump’s Russia-oil penalty underscores Washington’s new willingness to weaponise secondary sanctions—even against a Quad partner—whenever strategic narratives collide. Unless Modi can trade oil barrels for geopolitical alignment, India may pivot further toward Moscow and Tehran, fracturing the very Indo-Pacific lattice the U.S. once championed. Power, as historian Fareed Zakaria warns, “has no permanent friends, only interests.” (amp.cnn.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

Morning Intelligence • Wednesday, August 13, 2025

In Focus

Global markets woke up to a fresh fault-line: Reuters reports that Narendra Modi is scrambling to secure a face-to-face with Donald Trump at next month’s UN General Assembly after the White House doubled U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 50 percent — a levy unmatched since Smoot-Hawley. (reuters.com)

The numbers are brutal. India’s $190 billion two-way trade with the U.S. now carries a surcharge worth roughly 1 percent of Indian GDP; UBS calculates that gems, textiles and chemicals alone risk an $8 billion hit. Financial Times notes the rupee has slid 4 percent in a week and New Delhi’s vaunted “Mission 500” trade target is suddenly a mirage. (ft.com)

Yet tariffs are symptom, not disease. CNN’s earlier scoop on Trump’s Russia-oil penalty underscores Washington’s new willingness to weaponise secondary sanctions—even against a Quad partner—whenever strategic narratives collide. Unless Modi can trade oil barrels for geopolitical alignment, India may pivot further toward Moscow and Tehran, fracturing the very Indo-Pacific lattice the U.S. once championed. Power, as historian Fareed Zakaria warns, “has no permanent friends, only interests.” (amp.cnn.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

AI’s Double-Edged Scalpel

A study in The Lancet reveals a significant downside to AI in medicine, finding that over-reliance on technology can erode essential clinical skills. In a study of colonoscopies, AI assistance initially improved the detection of precancerous growths. However, when the AI was removed, the doctors’ own detection ability fell by a relative 20% compared to their pre-AI baseline. This phenomenon, termed “de-skilling,” presents a core challenge for innovators and practitioners: how to leverage powerful new tools without losing the foundational human expertise that is critical when technology fails or is unavailable. This underscores the need for a pragmatic approach to tech adoption, focusing on systems that augment, rather than replace, individual judgment.

The Tariff Tango

Global trade alignments are shifting under renewed US pressure, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected to meet President Donald Trump in September to negotiate on trade and tariffs (Reuters, Indian Express). The talks follow Washington’s imposition of tariffs that could reach 50% on Indian goods by August 27, a move Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a response to India being “a bit recalcitrant” in trade talks (Reuters). The situation is complicated by a recent, scaled-back US human rights report noting India has taken “minimal credible steps” against abuses (Strait Times). This broader protectionist push is also forcing other nations, like Switzerland, to reconsider long-held economic policies, including its famous neutrality (WSJ).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Europe’s Fissures Exposed Ahead of Trump-Putin Summit

As President Trump prepares to meet Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, European unity is cracking under the pressure. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has bluntly declared that “Russia has won the war in Ukraine,” making him the only EU leader to refuse to endorse a joint statement affirming Kyiv’s right to decide its own future (Reuters, Ansa). This open break from consensus clashes with calls from leaders like UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is demanding “robust and credible security guarantees” for Ukraine before the talks (GOV.UK). With the White House terming the meeting “exploratory,” the divergence reveals deep anxiety that Europe’s security architecture could be renegotiated without its full participation, leaving the continent on the menu, not at the table.

Heat and Jellyfish Hobble French Nuclear Fleet

A summer heatwave is exposing the vulnerabilities of France’s critical nuclear infrastructure, which provides roughly 70% of the country’s electricity (FOX Weather). At the Gravelines plant, the nation’s largest, a “massive and unpredictable” swarm of jellyfish clogged seawater cooling intakes, forcing four of its six reactors offline this week (Bloomberg, EDF). This follows other heat-related production curbs across France, where high river temperatures are hampering the ability of plants to cool down without harming aquatic life. These events challenge the reliability of nuclear power in a warming climate, raising difficult questions for energy policy and the immense capital required to adapt the aging fleet.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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