Ukraine’s president has bluntly proposed that “the current front lines should be the basis for talks,” freezing Russia’s 1-million-strong invasion where it now occupies roughly 18 % of Ukrainian territory(reuters.com). European leaders in Washington back Kyiv, warning that any deal struck under fire would echo the 1953 Korean armistice—stopping bullets, not ambitions—and could saddle Europe with a forever-militarised frontier(theguardian.com).

Trump, fresh from his Alaska summit with Putin, applauds the idea as a “practical peace.” Yet history shows that frozen conflicts rarely stay cold: ceasefires in Georgia (2008) and Donbas (2015) merely incubated larger wars. Limiting Ukraine’s NATO path while guaranteeing its security looks fiscally staggering—Moody’s pegs reconstruction at $486 bn—and strategically incoherent if Moscow keeps missiles within 20 km of Kharkiv.

As political scientist Ivan Krastev reminds us, “The future is the past happening to somebody else.” Accepting today’s battle lines could make tomorrow’s Europe hostage to yesterday’s mistakes.

— The Gist AI Editor

Bolivia Pivots to Markets

Bolivian voters, facing a severe economic crisis, have ousted the ruling socialist party after nearly two decades in power (WSJ). Preliminary results from Sunday’s election show centrist and right-wing, market-friendly candidates heading for a runoff. The shift comes amid soaring inflation, which reached nearly 25% annually, and critical shortages of fuel and US dollars that crippled the economy (Reuters). The country’s economic model, heavily reliant on nationalized gas revenues that plummeted from $6.1 billion in 2013 to $1.6 billion last year, proved unsustainable, leading to widespread public discontent (Al Jazeera). The leading candidates have pledged to slash public spending and open the economy to foreign investment.

US-Russia Pressure on Ukraine

President Trump is intensifying pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept a peace deal with Russia ahead of their high-stakes meeting in Washington today (Politico). Accompanied by several European leaders, Zelenskyy faces a US administration that has dropped its demand for a ceasefire before negotiations, a significant pivot aligning with Moscow’s position (Washington Post). Following his summit with Vladimir Putin, Trump is reportedly pushing a plan that involves Ukraine ceding territory in the eastern Donbas region in exchange for peace. As a potential incentive, US officials indicated a willingness to offer Ukraine “Article 5-like” security guarantees, a promise of collective defense similar to NATO’s charter, though stopping short of actual membership (The Straits Times).

Korean Détente 2.0?

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is moving to partially restore a 2018 military agreement with North Korea, aiming to de-escalate tensions on the peninsula (Strait Times). The pact, which Pyongyang abandoned in November 2023, included measures like establishing no-fly zones and removing guard posts along the heavily fortified border. Seoul’s initiative seeks to rebuild trust and prevent accidental clashes. From a market perspective, reduced geopolitical risk could stabilize regional investments, though Pyongyang’s history of provocations—over 3,600 from 2018 to 2024—warrants skepticism about the long-term economic benefits of such diplomatic overtures (The Chosun Daily).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

South Korea’s Lee orders partial phased implementation of existing North Korea pacts
— Strait Times

CapitaLand Ascendas Reit plans $329 million divestment of five Singapore properties
— Strait Times

Hong Kong democrat Jimmy Lai given heart monitor for final stretch of marathon trial
— Strait Times

Der Friedensgipfel im Weißen Haus
— Politico.Eu

The Coming Robot Home Invasion
— Wall Street Journal

Trump pressures Zelenskyy ahead of high-stakes meeting
— Politico.Eu

German Labour Market Nuances

New research on the German labour market challenges the prevailing narrative that job displacement inevitably leads to severe, long-term earnings loss for all. A study of West German workers displaced between 2000 and 2005 reveals a highly varied, or heterogeneous, set of outcomes (Cepr). It finds the large average losses often cited in economic literature are heavily skewed by a minority of workers who suffer catastrophic declines. This suggests the majority are more resilient, a point often lost in broad analyses that fuel calls for expansive state intervention. For policy, this is critical: instead of universal, distorting market programs, a more effective approach would be highly targeted support for the fraction of workers who truly struggle to recover. This underscores the need for evidence-based policy over broad-brush dogma.

Australia’s Costly Labour Intervention

A court decision in Australia offers a cautionary tale on the collision of rigid labour laws and crisis-level economic decisions. Qantas, the national airline, has been hit with a €50.1 million fine for the illegal dismissal of 1,800 ground staff during the 2020 pandemic lockdowns (Ansa). A Federal Court judge explicitly intended the penalty to be a “real deterrence” for other companies (Reuters). While framed as a defense of workers’ rights, this ruling highlights the risks of inflexible regulation. Forcing companies to retain staff during a government-mandated shutdown of their entire industry can be economically untenable. Such punitive measures may ultimately harm labour by making firms more risk-averse in hiring, knowing they lack the agility to adapt during profound economic shocks.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Bolivia, risultati confermano: sarà ballottaggio a destra
— Ansa

Revisiting the consequences of job displacement
— Cepr

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— Zdf

Serbiens Präsident droht Regierungskritikern
— Zdf

Warum Wasser in Deutschland kostbarer wird
— Zdf

Ucraina: droni russi su Kharkiv, almeno 3 morti e 17 feriti
— Ansa