Russian forces unleashed their heaviest aerial barrage in weeks overnight, firing 40 cruise and ballistic missiles plus 574 drones and striking a U.S-owned electronics plant near the Polish border—Kyiv’s gateway to NATO logistics.(ft.com, reuters.com, apnews.com) Moscow also debuted a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, a move the Kremlin framed as a “warning” to Washington.(bbc.com)

The attack underscores a strategic pivot: Russia is no longer merely degrading Ukraine’s grid but signalling its ability to hold Europe’s industrial spine at risk. NATO members already spend a record $1.34 trn on defence, yet still face a 6:1 missile-production gap with Russia and China combined—an asymmetry that stockpile-centric budgeting has ignored since 1991.

Unless Western arsenals shift from incremental aid to surge capacity, Moscow will retain escalation dominance and the diplomatic leverage that flows from it. “Power, like nature, abhors a vacuum.” — Anne-Marie Slaughter, 2024(reuters.com)

The Gist AI Editor

Taipei’s Defence Dilemma

Taiwan has proposed a significant 23% increase in its 2026 defence budget, pushing expenditure to NT$949.5 billion (S$40.1 billion), or 3.32% of its GDP—the first time it has crossed the 3% threshold since 2009 (Strait Times). The move signals Taipei’s urgency amid escalating threats from Beijing. However, the figure may not placate Washington, where President Trump has suggested allies should spend between 5% and 10%. The budget still faces legislative hurdles, and any reductions could be interpreted as a lack of resolve, complicating relations with its key security partner. This spending increase reflects the difficult balance small, threatened states must strike between fiscal prudence and existential defence needs.

Ecuador’s Deepening Security Crisis

Ecuador’s battle with organized crime is faltering as homicides surged by 40.36% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 (Strait Times). The nation recorded 5,268 killings, primarily of young men aged 25 to 34, marking the most violent period in the last decade. This grim statistic underscores the government’s struggle to impose order and the catastrophic failure of its public security strategy. The data points to a state losing control over its territory, a worrying sign for regional stability as violence spills across borders and erodes the foundations of civil society.

US Hiring Cools

The US labor market is showing signs of a slowdown, with a new Conference Board survey revealing that twice as many employers plan to reduce hiring in the second half of 2025 compared to last year (WSJ). This intentional pullback on filling jobs suggests corporate America is bracing for economic headwinds. For workers, this signals a potential shift from a job-seeker’s market to one with fewer opportunities and slower wage growth. The trend reflects a broader economic rebalancing as businesses adjust to post-pandemic realities and shifting consumer demand, prioritizing cost control over expansion.

Bolsonaro’s Alleged Escape Plan

Brazilian federal police allege that President Jair Bolsonaro drafted a letter requesting political asylum in Argentina just two days after his passport was confiscated in February 2024 (Strait Times). The document, found on his phone, was addressed to Argentine President Javier Milei. The revelation adds another layer to the legal challenges facing Bolsonaro, suggesting he may have actively sought to evade the judicial process. This development raises serious questions about the rule of law and political accountability in one of Latin America’s largest democracies, highlighting the tensions between populist leaders and state institutions.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Brazil’s Bolsonaro drafted Argentina asylum request, police allege
— Strait Times

Taiwan hikes defence spending to 3.32% of GDP, but it may not be enough to satisfy Trump
— Strait Times

Serena Williams Is the Surprising New Face of Weight-Loss Drugs
— Wall Street Journal

Ecuador homicides increase 40% through July, over 5,000 killed
— Strait Times

US to take part in Russia’s answer to Eurovision
— Politico.Eu

Foreign ministers team up to condemn Israel’s West Bank settlement plans
— Politico.Eu

Sweden’s Nuclear Bet

Sweden is making a decisive pivot back to nuclear energy, with state-owned utility Vattenfall shortlisting US-based GE Vernova and Britain’s Rolls-Royce to construct several small modular reactors (SMRs). The plan is to add a total capacity of 1,500 megawatts by roughly 2035 at the Ringhals plant (Le Monde). This move is a pragmatic recognition that decarbonization and energy independence require a reliable, high-density power source. While much of Europe remains ideologically gridlocked on nuclear, Stockholm’s embrace of next-generation SMRs—which promise smaller footprints and greater scalability—signals a market-oriented, technology-driven approach to energy security, moving past the political dogma that has hobbled the continent’s power strategy. The ripple effect could see other nations re-evaluating SMRs as a viable path.

Europe’s Skewed Skies

A new Greenpeace analysis quantifies a significant market distortion: air travel in Europe is systematically cheaper than rail, with flights being the more economical option on 54% of the 109 cross-border routes studied (Ansa). The report correctly identifies tax privileges for airlines—such as exemptions on value-added tax (VAT) and kerosene taxes—as the root cause. This isn’t a failure of the market but of government intervention creating an uneven playing field. Instead of simply demanding more subsidies for railways through “climate tickets,” a classical-liberal approach would advocate for ending the distortionary fiscal advantages enjoyed by the aviation industry. True competition, where all transport sectors bear their real costs, would naturally encourage more efficient and potentially greener choices without heavy-handed state planning.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Nordstream-Sabotage: Verdächtiger festgenommen
— Zdf

Aereo più economico del treno in Europa, ma paga l’ambiente
— Ansa

Metal Bros: Why are millennial men obsessed with filling their homes with steel and chrome?
— El Pais

Der Ukraine-Krieg im Zeitraffer
— Zdf

Dauerregen rollt über den Süden Deutschlands
— Zdf

Meloni: ‘L’occupazione di Gaza aggraverà una situazione drammatica’
— Ansa