Humanitarian arithmetic rarely shocks, yet yesterday’s UNHCR memo does: the agency will slash its 2025 budget to $8.5 billion—almost 20 % below plan—despite a record 122 million forcibly displaced people. The cut leaves a per-capita spend of barely $70 a year, less than one third of the 2015 level, and forces triage in Sudan, Ukraine and beyond. (reuters.com)

This is not an isolated squeeze but the sharp end of a structural pivot. In June the UN’s OCHA admitted it had secured only 13 % of its global appeal and was “forced into a triage of human survival.” (dw.com) Euronews’ April leak showed agencies bracing for 30 % staff cuts after Washington’s retreat from aid leadership—signalling that multilateral safety nets are fraying exactly when geopolitical shocks, climate displacement and food-price spikes demand the opposite. (euronews.com)

The deeper pattern is a collective-action failure: rich economies redirect budgets to defence and industrial policy while outsourcing refugee care to poorer states. History warns this is self-defeating; the 1930s refugee crisis metastasised into broader instability when funding collapsed. As philosopher Martha Nussbaum reminds us, “Capacities wither when we refuse to invest in human dignity.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Sino-Russian Axis Deepens

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Beijing, reinforcing their strategic alignment in the face of Western pressure (Bloomberg). The meeting is more than diplomatic pageantry; it’s a clear signal of a deepening partnership formed to counterbalance US influence. From our perspective, this growing economic and military cooperation between two authoritarian powers represents the most significant ongoing challenge to the liberal international order, demanding a coherent and firm response from free nations.

Belgium Pivots on Mideast Policy

Belgium announced it will recognize a Palestinian state and impose sanctions on Israel, a move slated for this month’s U.N. General Assembly (Politico.eu). Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot conditioned the decision on two key points: the release of all Israeli hostages by Hamas and the group no longer managing Palestinian affairs. This policy shift underscores a growing fracture in the unified Western stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with some European nations increasingly willing to carve out a diplomatic path independent of Washington.

Capital Flees US Political Risk

Geopolitical uncertainty is beginning to redirect global capital flows. According to private markets giant Partners Group, some Asian and Middle Eastern investors are now actively avoiding the United States, becoming ‘more wary about what they’re exposed to’ following political shocks linked to President Trump (FT). This sentiment is a critical indicator; when long-term capital begins to price in political instability, it can signal the start of a structural shift away from US-denominated assets, potentially eroding the dollar’s preeminent role as the world’s reserve currency.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

French banks pay over the odds for Bayrou’s gamble
— Financial Times

Asian and Middle Eastern investors avoiding US, says private markets giant
— Financial Times

Moon phase today: What the moon will look like on September 2, 2025
— Mashable

Can a machine be just?
— Financial Times

Das Rätsel um die sechs toten AfD-Politiker
— Politico.Eu

Europe’s next budget must power its security and energy transition
— Politico.Eu

France’s Unstable Center

The nascent French government under Prime Minister François Bayrou is already on life support, with Bayrou slated to meet nationalist leader Marine Le Pen today. The goal is to court opposition support to survive a critical confidence vote scheduled in just six days. This high-stakes maneuvering underscores the profound instability at the heart of a key EU power. A failure to secure a majority would likely trigger a government collapse, paralyzing French policy-making and creating a significant headwind for any ambitious EU-level reforms. The move signals not a genuine policy alignment but a desperate attempt to cling to power, highlighting the fragility of centrist coalitions against a fragmented political landscape.

Germany Courts A Wary India

Berlin is making a strategic play for New Delhi, just as India’s Prime Minister Modi appears to be recalibrating his alliances away from the US-led West. German Foreign Minister Wadephul’s visit is timed to exploit friction over recent US tariff announcements, creating a diplomatic opening for Germany and the EU. For Europe, deepening ties with the world’s largest democracy offers a significant opportunity to diversify supply chains and build a strategic counterweight to China. From my perspective, this is classical-liberal foreign policy in action: leveraging trade and diplomacy to foster cooperation, rather than relying on rigid, Cold War-style blocs. The success of this outreach could reshape key economic and security partnerships for the next decade.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Deutschlands kleine Chance in Indien
— ZDF

Bayrou se reúne este martes con Le Pen para intentar salvar el Gobierno de Francia
— El Pais

RFK Jr and the chaos at the CDC – podcast
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Aachener Friedenspreis für Festival-Veranstalter
— ZDF

Europe’s next budget must power its security and energy transition
— Politico Europe