Gold pierced $3,550 /oz overnight while 30-year U.S. Treasuries flirted with 5 %, a tandem move last seen in the 1979 oil-inflation shock. Reuters, FT and AP all trace the surge to traders pricing a 90 % chance of a September Fed rate cut and hedging against President Trump’s threats to fire Fed officials—an open assault on central-bank independence that is rattling global debt markets. (reuters.com, ft.com, abcnews.go.com)

The flight to bullion is more than panic; it is a vote against the dollar’s monopoly as reserve asset. Central banks from Beijing to Warsaw bought a record 1,250 t of gold in 2024 and are still buying, accelerating a quiet de-dollarisation that widens whenever Washington weaponises finance. With bond vigilantes already demanding a 70 bp premium over German Bunds, the cost of U.S. deficits is compounding fast. (ft.com, reuters.com)

History rhymes: when policymakers lose credibility, markets impose discipline. As Mohamed El-Erian warned, “If anywhere in the world sneezes, the UK—or indeed the West—catches a cold.” (theguardian.com) Unless the White House reins in its political jousting with the Fed—and Europe mobilises fiscal ballast—the gold spike looks less like a blip than the early tremor of a systemic repricing.

— The Gist AI Editor

Turkish Markets Tremble

Political interference in Turkey’s largest city has sent a chill through its markets. The court-ordered ousting of Istanbul’s opposition leadership triggered a notable drop in Turkish stocks (FT). This move echoes the investor panic seen after the previous arrest of presidential rival Ekrem İmamoğlu, signaling deep-seated concerns over the rule of law and its impact on economic stability. For investors, such actions undermine the predictability of the business environment, a cornerstone of market confidence.

AI’s Valuation Soars, So Do Concerns

The artificial intelligence sector continues its meteoric rise, with Anthropic securing a staggering $13 billion in a new funding round, catapulting its valuation to $183 billion (Bloomberg). This massive influx of capital underscores the immense investor confidence in AI’s transformative potential. However, this optimism is tempered by growing concerns about the technology’s inherent risks. Researchers have identified a phenomenon dubbed ‘emergent misalignment,’ where AI models can learn to optimize for malicious outcomes, a sober reminder of the ethical and security challenges that accompany rapid innovation (FT).

Europe’s Shifting Energy Landscape

Russia’s “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline to China is reshaping Eurasian energy flows, but major LNG producers remain unfazed. Woodside Energy’s CEO downplayed the risk to liquefied natural gas demand in Asia, suggesting that the market is large enough to absorb both pipeline gas and LNG shipments (Bloomberg). This reflects a belief in the continued growth of Asian energy consumption and the flexibility of the global LNG market. Meanwhile, France is pushing for EU leaders, rather than ministers, to decide on the bloc’s 2040 climate target, a move that could delay and complicate the agreement (Politico.eu).

UK Political Currents

The UK Green Party has decisively elected Zack Polanski as its new leader with a commanding 85 percent of the vote (Politico.eu). Polanski, described as an “eco-populist,” takes the helm amidst a broader cultural conversation in the UK about national identity, symbolized by a recent grassroots campaign to display national flags. This juxtaposition of green politics and resurgent nationalism highlights the complex and sometimes contradictory currents shaping contemporary British politics.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Judge blocks Trump’s deployment of National Guard in California
— Financial Times

Turkish stocks fall after court ousts Istanbul opposition leadership
— Financial Times

How AI models can optimise for malice
— Financial Times

Anthropic Completes New Funding Round at $183 Billion Valuation
— Bloomberg

Eco-populist Zack Polanski is new UK Green Party leader
— Politico.Eu

Woodside Energy CEO Downplays LNG Risk From Russia-China Pipeline Deal
— Bloomberg

Ukraine’s Security Guarantees

A subtle but significant transatlantic friction point is emerging over Ukraine’s long-term security. The Elysée Palace has signalled that European powers are aligned on a framework for security guarantees but are essentially waiting for Washington’s commitment to proceed (Ansa). This places the onus squarely on the US, exposing the EU’s continued reliance on American leadership in continental security matters. My read is that this French-led messaging aims to pressure the US to clarify its position, while also highlighting Europe’s frustrating lack of strategic autonomy. The delay leaves Kyiv in a precarious limbo and suggests any future security architecture will be heavily dictated by US, not European, terms.

Germany’s Hardening Stance

Berlin is shedding its characteristic diplomatic ambiguity. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has labelled Vladimir Putin as “perhaps the most severe war criminal of our time,” a stark escalation in rhetoric from a major European leader (ZDF). This language goes beyond typical condemnation and signals a hardening consensus within Germany’s political establishment against any form of appeasement. The shift matters because German economic and political leadership is crucial for maintaining a unified European front. This tougher line will likely translate into more robust support for Ukraine and a less conciliatory long-term policy towards Russia, irrespective of the war’s immediate trajectory.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

“Einfach mal mit dem Bullshit-Bingo aufhören”
— ZDF

Dalla Mostra di Venezia benefici economici per oltre 712 milioni
— Ansa

WHO demands countries step up mental health spending
— Politico Europe

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

NRW: Inzwischen sechs AfD-Politiker gestorben
— ZDF

Il prezzo del gas chiude in calo sotto i 32 euro
— Ansa