Russia’s war-inflated boom is curdling fast. Within 24 hours the central bank’s policy rate sits at a punishing 19% after an emergency hike, and Sberbank’s chief warns that the economy has already slipped into “technical stagnation” with growth forecasts cut to 1.5% for 2025(reuters.com, apnews.com, ft.com).

Why it matters: every percentage-point rise now siphons roughly ₽500 bn from corporate balance-sheets, eroding the fiscal cushion that has financed Moscow’s war machine. Real borrowing costs exceed 9 ppts, matching levels on the eve of the 1998 default; a similar mix of capital flight, twin deficits and elite finger-pointing preceded that crash. Today’s labour shortages and sanction-driven import gaps magnify the squeeze, suggesting a classic “policy trap” where tighter money feeds, rather than tames, inflation.

If rates remain near 20%, IMF models imply a 2-3 ppt GDP hit within a year—enough to turn Putin’s vaunted 4% wartime growth into contraction. As historian Adam Tooze reminds us, “war economies rot from the inside before they crumble on the front” (lecture, LSE, 2024).

— The Gist AI Editor

Harvard Funding Unfrozen

A US court has ruled the Trump administration illegally withheld over $2 billion in research funding from Harvard University, a significant development in the ongoing tension between government and academia (Bloomberg). This judicial check on executive power reaffirms the principle that research funding, once allocated by Congress, should not be subject to political whims. The decision is a victory for scientific independence and innovation, ensuring that crucial research projects can proceed without arbitrary interference. Our view is that insulating scientific inquiry from political pressure is paramount for long-term progress and economic dynamism.

Nuclear Power’s Jellyfish Problem

In France, a swarm of jellyfish has forced the partial shutdown of a nuclear power plant for the second time in a month, highlighting a peculiar vulnerability in our energy infrastructure (Financial Times). This incident underscores the unforeseen environmental challenges that can impact even the most advanced technologies. As nations increasingly rely on nuclear power for stable, low-carbon energy, operators must innovate to mitigate such biological risks. This event serves as a reminder that nature often has the final say, and resilient infrastructure must be designed to anticipate the unexpected, rather than simply reacting to it.

EU Commission Overhaul

The European Commission is planning a significant restructuring, aiming to streamline its 32,000-strong civil service by early next year (Politico.eu). The stated goal is to enhance efficiency and reduce costs within the EU’s executive arm. From a classical-liberal standpoint, any move to reduce bureaucratic bloat and centralize decision-making for greater accountability is welcome. However, the risk remains that this could consolidate power without genuinely improving outcomes for citizens. The focus should be on creating a leaner, more responsive institution that fosters free markets and innovation rather than expanding its own reach.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Circa CEO: Trump Tax Deductions Change ‘Unfortunate’
— Bloomberg

StubHub, Netskope to Begin IPO Marketing as Soon as Monday
— Bloomberg

Harvard $2B Funding Freeze Found Illegal by Judge
— Bloomberg

Daniel Levy steps down as executive chair of Tottenham Hotspur
— Financial Times

Jellyfish force partial shutdown at French nuclear plant
— Financial Times

Ørsted sues Trump administration for halting $1.5bn offshore wind project
— Financial Times

The Neurological Cost of Dirty Air

A chilling new study provides a mechanistic link between air pollution and neurodegeneration, moving beyond correlation to potential causation. Research published in Science identifies how fine-particulate matter can trigger the formation of toxic protein clumps in the brain, a hallmark of Lewy body dementia. Scientists demonstrated that prolonged exposure in mice led to the accumulation of alpha-synuclein proteins, cognitive decline, and neuronal death—damage that was absent in mice genetically engineered to lack the protein. This specifies a molecular pathway, reframing the clean air debate from a purely environmental concern to one of urgent neurological health. The finding intensifies pressure on regulators to tighten emissions standards, suggesting a portion of the immense economic and human cost of dementia may be preventable.

Denmark’s Green Energy Gambit Hits a Wall

European innovation is colliding with American politics as Danish energy firm Ørsted sues the Trump administration. The lawsuit contests a sudden stop-work order on its 704-megawatt Revolution Wind project, which is already 80% complete off the U.S. East Coast (Politico, Reuters). The administration’s move threatens a multi-billion dollar investment aimed at powering hundreds of thousands of homes and jeopardizes over 1,000 union construction jobs. For Ørsted and other European developers, the legal battle is a critical test of whether large-scale green technology projects can withstand regulatory volatility in the U.S. market. The outcome will signal the real-world political risks facing international firms leading the energy transition, potentially chilling foreign investment in American infrastructure.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Meloni a Schlein: ‘Il governo tutelerà gli italiani della Flotilla’
— Ansa

Jessica Ruiz’s life since her husband was detained by ICE: The weight of business, home, and three children
— El Pais

Study reveals how air pollution can trigger harmful changes in the brain that lead to neurodegeneration
— El Pais

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Abschied mit Stil bei Weltpremiere in London
— ZDF

Danish company sues Trump administration over wind farm stop-work order
— Politico Europe