France’s fourth prime minister in under two years, François Bayrou, is set to fall in tonight’s no-confidence vote—victim of a €44 billion austerity plan, 5.8 %-of-GDP deficit and public debt now at 114 % of output. All major blocs, from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally to the hard-left France Unbowed, say they will topple his minority cabinet, leaving President Macron scrambling for premier number five.(reuters.com, theguardian.com, apnews.com)

Markets have noticed: French-German 10-year bond spreads widened to a 12-year high after Bayrou’s announcement, and S&P has already threatened another downgrade. The spectacle recalls the Fourth Republic’s revolving-door governments—precisely what the 1958 constitution sought to banish—and comes as the EU demands fiscal consolidation while Russia’s war and U.S.–China trade friction test European cohesion.(reuters.com)

Political instability, warns ECB president Christine Lagarde, can trigger a “vicious circle” of rising yields and lost confidence.(reuters.com) Paris now risks exporting its governance crisis to the entire eurozone. Unless Macron forges a broad coalition—or calls risky snap elections—France may discover, in Laurent Wauquiez’s words, that instability is “an economic poison.”(reuters.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

Gold Nears $3,600 Amid Rate-Cut Bets

Gold prices surged, approaching the $3,600 per ounce milestone as weak U.S. jobs data fueled expectations of impending interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The precious metal has climbed an impressive 37% in 2025, building on a 27% gain in 2024. This rally is underpinned by a trifecta of factors: a weakening U.S. dollar, which makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers; persistent economic uncertainty and stagflation fears; and substantial purchases by central banks seeking to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. This sustained flight to safety reflects a growing investor belief that policymakers will prioritize stimulating growth over fighting inflation, a move that typically diminishes returns on government bonds and enhances gold’s appeal.

Trump’s Warning to Foreign Firms

Following a major immigration raid at a Hyundai factory construction site in Georgia, President Trump issued a stark warning to foreign companies operating in the U.S. to “please respect our Nation’s Immigration Laws.” The operation, the largest of its kind at a single worksite under the Trump administration, resulted in the detention of 475 workers, including approximately 300 South Korean nationals who are now slated for release and repatriation. The raid complicates U.S. efforts to attract foreign investment, particularly from South Korea, which recently pledged $350 billion to help revitalize American manufacturing. The incident highlights the inherent conflict between the administration’s stringent immigration enforcement and its economic agenda dependent on foreign capital and, at times, specialized foreign labor.

UK Asset Manager abrdn Faces Major Outflow

UK-based asset manager abrdn (formerly Aberdeen) is navigating continued turbulence after pensions giant Phoenix Group pulled a significant mandate. While the most recent figures from Q1 2025 showed a £4.2 billion redemption from Phoenix contributing to a total quarterly outflow of £5.2 billion for abrdn, this is not the £20bn figure mentioned in the source article’s title which seems to be an error. The firm’s assets under management consequently dipped to £500.1 billion by the end of March 2025, down from £511.4 billion at the close of 2024. This withdrawal continues a challenging period of outflows for the investment house, underscoring the competitive pressures in the asset management industry.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald rules out a presidential run in Ireland
— Politico.Eu

Germany’s Merz warns against ‘false nostalgia’ over US alliance
— Politico.Eu

Philips Faces Deepened French Probe Over Sleep Apnea Device Safety
— Bloomberg

Trump warns foreign companies after immigration raid at Hyundai plant
— Politico.Eu

Astronomers spotlight distant planet in hunt for extraterrestrial life
— Financial Times

Aberdeen suffers blow as Phoenix Group pulls £20bn of funds
— Financial Times

Europe’s Strategic Unmooring

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s admonition against “false nostalgia” for the transatlantic alliance is more than just Berlin signaling a pivot; it reflects a tectonic shift underway in Brussels (Politico). The European Commission is reportedly preparing to concede the post-war “rules-based world order is dead,” urging the bloc to adapt to a new reality of great power competition. This admission formalizes what has been apparent for years: the continent must now chart its own economic and security course, independent of U.S. political whims. For European businesses, this means the era of predictable, open global trade is ending, likely to be replaced by a patchwork of strategic alliances and protectionist impulses. The key question now is whether this will spur genuine free-market innovation or merely a more robust, EU-centric bureaucracy.

Energy Markets Signal Renewed Risk

The European natural gas benchmark, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), saw future contracts for October rise 3.43% to close above €33 per megawatt-hour (Ansa). While not a dramatic spike, the move underscores the market’s persistent sensitivity to geopolitical tremors emanating from the war in Ukraine. The increase was linked to discussions of potential new sanctions against Russia, a reminder that energy remains a potent economic weapon. For a continent still grappling with industrial competitiveness, this volatility is a tax on every business and household. It serves as a stark, data-driven signal that Europe’s energy security is far from resolved, directly impacting everything from manufacturing costs to inflation forecasts and reinforcing the urgent need for supply diversification and market-led solutions.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Warken: Krankenkasse und Pflege brauchen tiefgreifende Reformen
— ZDF

Germany’s Merz warns against ‘false nostalgia’ over US alliance
— Politico Europe

Duterte ICC hearing postponed over health issues
— Deutsche Welle

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Corona-Aufarbeitung – wie soll das gelingen?
— ZDF

Il gas chiude sopra i 33 euro sulla piazza Ttf di Amsterdam
— Ansa