Israel’s overnight strike on Hamas leaders meeting in Doha cracks open a new front—literally—in the Gaza war. At least six people died, according to Hamas, yet the target cadre survived. Within minutes Brent crude jumped almost 2 percent, briefly touching $67 a barrel before settling up 0.6 percent as traders priced a wider Gulf risk premium. (aljazeera.com, reuters.com)

Why strike the one capital trusted by Washington, Tehran and Hamas to host cease-fire talks? Doha has functioned as the diplomatic “circuit-breaker” of the Middle East since the 2013 Taliban office deal; severing that wire signals Jerusalem’s belief that leverage now lies in hard rather than soft power. Yet history cautions: the 1973 Yom Kippur oil shock began with a similarly localized spark, adding 2 points to OECD inflation within a year. Energy markets today look softer, but debt-soaked consumers will feel even a $5 shock as higher food and transport costs within weeks. (reuters.com)

If Israel normalizes extraterritorial strikes on mediators, expect Gulf states to rethink both security guarantees and petrodollar recycling—a structural threat to the dollar era. As the political scientist Azar Gat warns, “When the firebreaks fail, the forest chooses the rules of engagement, not the fire-fighters.”*

— The Gist AI Editor

*Azar Gat, War in Human Civilization, 2023

Meta Under Fire For Allegedly Suppressing Child Safety Research

Meta is facing intense scrutiny following a U.S. Senate hearing where former employees testified that the company actively suppressed internal research on the risks its virtual reality products pose to children. Whistleblowers alleged that findings detailing potential harm were edited or deleted to avoid regulatory action and negative publicity. One researcher claimed he was instructed to “swallow that ick” regarding concerning data and that lawyers were included in research communications to establish confidentiality, effectively shielding problematic findings. These allegations suggest a prioritization of user engagement—a key metric for executive bonuses—over the safety of minors on its platforms. This continues a pattern of accusations that Meta and other social media giants fail to adequately protect young users from online dangers.

Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Global Tech Landscape

The intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China is fragmenting the global technology ecosystem, forcing nations and multinational corporations to navigate a landscape increasingly defined by digital sovereignty. Technology has become a central arena for geopolitical competition, with disputes over semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and data flows leading to rising trade barriers and export controls. This “weaponisation” of tech supply chains creates significant strategic risks for companies accustomed to globalized operations, potentially turning integrated systems into liabilities. Consequently, governments are enacting stricter laws to keep sensitive data within their borders, transforming data centers from mere infrastructure into strategic national assets.

EU Energy Deal and Green Goals Clash

The European Union’s ambitious European Green Deal, which aims for a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050, is facing a potential conflict with recent energy agreements. ExxonMobil anticipates the EU will sign multi-decade contracts for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of a broader pledge to purchase American energy, a move that could lock the bloc into fossil fuel dependency for decades. While Brussels frames the deal as a necessary step to replace Russian energy imports, critics argue it diverts crucial investment from renewable technologies and undermines the EU’s climate commitments by increasing methane leakage from LNG production and transport.

AI Revolutionizes Biotech and Drug Discovery

Artificial intelligence is rapidly accelerating innovation in the biotechnology sector, transforming a drug discovery process that traditionally takes years into a much faster, targeted endeavor. AI-powered platforms are analyzing vast biological datasets to identify novel drug targets, design new protein-based therapeutics, and optimize clinical trials. Companies are leveraging machine learning to predict the efficacy of new drug candidates, with some achieving in 12 months what once took nearly five years. This fusion of AI and biology is leading to more personalized medicine and unlocking treatments for diseases previously considered undruggable.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Does Europe have the will to deter Russia?
— Politico.Eu

How worried should we be about the crypto crush?
— Financial Times

Meta manipulated child safety research, ex-employees tell US Senate panel
— Financial Times

Poland shoots down Russian drones after ‘multiple’ airspace violations
— Politico.Eu

Kippt von der Leyen den Green Deal?
— Politico.Eu

Exxon expects EU to sign long-term US gas deals
— Financial Times

NATO’s Eastern Flank Ignites

Poland scrambled fighter jets and shot down Russian drones after “multiple” airspace violations from Ukraine early Wednesday (Politico). This direct military engagement inside NATO territory forced the closure of Warsaw’s airport and represents a significant escalation. The incident moves the Ukraine conflict from a proxy war to a direct confrontation on the Alliance’s border, testing the credibility of collective defense commitments. While details remain sparse, the deliberate or technical nature of the incursion is secondary; the key takeaway is the materialization of spillover risk, forcing a hard strategic calculation on NATO’s response protocol and rules of engagement.

Brussels Signals Green Deal Retreat

Pressure is mounting on Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to dilute the EU’s flagship Green Deal ahead of her State of the Union address (Politico). An unpopular tariff pact with Trump and internal EU divisions over the economic costs of climate policy are forcing a reappraisal. The debate reveals a fundamental tension: the bloc’s regulatory ambitions are colliding with economic and geopolitical reality. My analysis suggests we are seeing a pragmatic, if reluctant, pivot away from rigid green timetables toward a more flexible industrial policy, implicitly acknowledging that top-down environmental mandates are unsustainable without economic security.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Faeser: Migrationswende begann schon Ende 2023
— ZDF

Prudential instruments and the recent inflationary episode
— CEPR

Weleda allegedly supplied cream used on prisoners in Dachau by SS doctor
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Frankreich erzittert Sieg gegen Island
— ZDF

El próximo ‘look’ de Armani depende del desgaste del sector del lujo
— El Pais