Ukrainian drones ignited Russia’s Kirishi refinery (355,000 bpd) and hit the Primorsk export terminal, pushing Brent up 0.5 % to $67.35 and WTI to $63.05 as markets priced fresh supply risk.(reuters.com) Together, the facilities move roughly 1.3 mbd—more than Norway’s total crude output—so even minor outages reverberate across global pricing and inflation expectations.

Kyiv frames these strikes as “sanctions in action,” arguing that each disrupted barrel squeezes Moscow’s war chest more effectively than G7 price caps ever did.(theguardian.com) History rhymes: just as Allied raids on Ploesti starved Axis armor of fuel in 1943, today’s low-cost UAVs create a 21st-century “Tanker War,” but without risking large navies or breaching NATO red-lines.

Energy traders should note the systemic trend: geographically dispersed, asymmetric attacks are now a structural premium embedded in oil futures, not a one-off shock. As energy scholar Amy Myers Jaffe warns, “Energy security is national security.” (The Energy Shift, 2023). Expect policymakers—from OPEC+ to the Fed—to recalibrate forecasts around this new volatility regime.

— The Gist AI Editor

EU Cracks Down on Illicit Chinese Imports

European prosecutors have seized 2,435 shipping containers at Greece’s Piraeus port, exposing a large-scale scheme to evade EU import taxes (Politico.eu). This operation highlights a persistent challenge for the bloc: enforcing fair trade rules. The alleged fraud involved avoiding anti-dumping duties, which are tariffs imposed on foreign goods priced below fair market value. Such measures aim to protect domestic industries from predatory pricing, but their circumvention undermines market integrity and disadvantages rule-abiding European businesses. The scale of the seizure underscores the financial and logistical sophistication of these illicit networks.

US-China TikTok Deal Nears Finish Line

The Trump administration has reportedly reached a framework agreement to permit TikTok’s continued operation in the US, pending a final discussion between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping this Friday (Bloomberg). This development signals a potential de-escalation in a long-simmering tech standoff. From a free-market standpoint, avoiding an outright ban is preferable, allowing consumer choice to prevail. However, the deal’s final terms will be critical. Any arrangement must rigorously address national security concerns without creating a precedent for government overreach into corporate structuring or data governance.

Italy Targets Banks for More Revenue

Rome is drafting plans to extract an additional €1.5 billion from its banking sector in 2027 by delaying tax deductions (Bloomberg). This move represents another instance of state intervention to shore up public finances at the expense of a specific industry. While politically expedient, such targeted tax measures can distort capital allocation and may ultimately be passed on to consumers through higher fees or reduced credit availability. This approach creates uncertainty and can deter long-term investment, illustrating the trade-offs between short-term fiscal gains and sustainable economic health.

Innovation in Cancer Diagnostics

On the health-tech front, Exact Sciences has launched a new multi-cancer blood test, a significant step in early disease detection (Bloomberg). Innovations like these, which empower individuals with more accessible and less invasive diagnostic tools, are a clear win for patient outcomes and long-term public health. By enabling earlier intervention, such technologies can dramatically lower the high costs associated with treating advanced-stage cancers, showcasing how market-driven R&D can deliver profound societal benefits beyond direct commercial returns.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Italy Is Drafting Plans to Raise €1.5 Billion More From Banks
— Bloomberg

Trump Will Finish TikTok Deal, Bessent Says
— Bloomberg

Exact Sciences CEO on Launch of Multi-Cancer Blood Test
— Bloomberg

SEC allows Exxon plan to limit shareholder activism
— Financial Times

Mittal moves to increase influence over BT Group with board seats
— Financial Times

Ørsted’s bankers take out Trump insurance
— Financial Times

German AI Adoption Accelerates

A fresh study reveals a significant uptake of artificial intelligence among German companies, with 36% now integrating AI technologies (ZDF). The primary applications are in customer-facing roles and marketing, indicating a strategic shift towards efficiency and data-driven engagement. This is not merely a tactical move; it represents a fundamental rewiring of business models in Europe’s industrial core. The embrace of AI is crucial for maintaining a competitive edge against US and Chinese counterparts. However, it also raises pressing questions about the future labour market, as increased automation will inevitably displace certain roles while creating others, demanding a more flexible, skills-focused workforce.

Italian Markets Flash Green

Milan’s stock exchange posted a solid gain, closing up +0.6%, buoyed by its banking sector (Ansa). More telling is the narrowing of the spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds (BTPs and Bunds, respectively)—a key sovereign risk indicator—to just 80 basis points. The yield on Italy’s ten-year note concurrently eased to 3.49%. This suggests growing investor confidence in Italy’s fiscal position and, more broadly, a market pricing in anticipated rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. For now, capital markets are signalling a cautious optimism, betting that central banks will pivot before economic headwinds intensify.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Finnlands Außenministerin: “Sanktionen wirken”
— ZDF

Jedes dritte Unternehmen nutzt KI
— ZDF

The Pitt, primo potente medical drama post pandemia
— Ansa

Britische Regierung kritisiert Musk
— ZDF

Al via il Festival delle Idee, Federico Buffa apre la settima edizione
— Ansa

Borsa: Milano prosegue in rialzo con le banche
— Ansa