Beijing’s fiercest critics have long warned that the post-1945 legal order erodes when major powers enjoy impunity. Tonight that order faces its gravest stress-test in years: a UN Commission of Inquiry has concluded that senior Israeli officials—including Prime Minister Netanyahu—“incited and orchestrated genocide” in Gaza, where more than 37,800 Palestinians have been killed and 1.9 million displaced since October 2023.(reuters.com)

The finding matters less for its shock value—scholars have made similar claims for months—than for the cascade it triggers. Genocide is the one crime every state must punish; if The Hague follows with arrest warrants, Washington and EU capitals will be forced to square rhetorical commitments to a “rules-based order” with their deepest regional alliance. Recall how Srebrenica’s 1995 verdict reshaped NATO policy and Serbian politics; juridical labels can alter battlefield realities.

I see a broader pattern: as asymmetric wars migrate online, the threshold for “intent to destroy” is interpreted increasingly through public statements, not secret cables. Leaders everywhere should note that what is tweeted today may ground a subpoena tomorrow. “History,” warns philosopher Kwame Anthony Appiah, “is a judge with an inexhaustible memory.”

The Gist AI Editor

US-UK Trade Friction

President Trump, ahead of his UK visit, expressed a desire to “help” Britain secure a better trade deal, yet optimism in London is fading for a near-term resolution on punitive steel and aluminum tariffs (Politico.eu). Washington and London are expected to announce technology and energy agreements, but the 25% duties on British steel and aluminum remain a significant point of contention in transatlantic trade relations (Stratfor). This impasse highlights the tension between strategic cooperation and the administration’s protectionist impulses, which prioritize shielding domestic industries over frictionless trade.

Energy Investment Paradox

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that oil and gas companies are spending approximately $500 billion annually just to maintain current production levels as output from existing fields declines faster than anticipated (FT, Semafor). Around 90% of this capital expenditure is dedicated to offsetting these natural declines rather than meeting new demand, a trend intensified by reliance on faster-depleting shale resources. This massive, ongoing investment underscores the immense challenge of transitioning the global energy system while ensuring market stability and energy security.

Hollywood’s AI Copyright Battle

Major Hollywood studios, including Disney, Universal, and Warner Bros Discovery, have filed a copyright infringement lawsuit against MiniMax, a Chinese artificial intelligence firm (FT). The studios allege the company engaged in “willful and brazen” violations by using their intellectual property to train its AI models without authorization. The lawsuit signals a significant escalation in the fight to protect creative assets in the age of generative AI, framing the issue as a defense of both artistic ownership and the broader American creative economy against unauthorized exploitation.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

UK Lawmakers Question Starmer Decisions Over Mandelson
— Bloomberg

ECB Must Remain Agile Due to Lingering Uncertainty, Escriva Says
— Bloomberg

Hollywood studios sue Chinese AI company for alleged copyright infringement
— Financial Times

Microsoft CEO-Backed Groww Makes Public Filing for India IPO
— Bloomberg

Why quarterly earnings will go the way of the dinosaurs
— Financial Times

Oil and gas groups spend $500bn a year ‘to stand still’ as fields decline, says IEA
— Financial Times

Brussels Pivots on Israel

The European Commission is advancing a proposal to sanction Israel’s government, a watershed moment in the bloc’s foreign policy (Politico). This response to the escalating military offensive in Gaza marks a significant hardening of tone from Brussels. The move threatens to expose deep rifts within the EU, particularly with Germany, where support for Israel is a cornerstone of foreign policy. We may be heading for another “German Vote” dilemma, where Berlin’s internal coalition disagreements could paralyze the EU’s ability to act decisively. This isn’t merely symbolic; weaponizing economic policy against a key regional partner signals a new, more assertive—and potentially fractured—European approach to the Middle East. The precedent it sets for leveraging sanctions will be closely watched globally.

Italy’s Inward Turn on Defense

In Italy, the Lega party is demanding that any increased defense expenditures be reallocated from military procurement and foreign missions to domestic security (Ansa). The party’s explicit goal is to use funds to “presidiare e controllare treni, stazioni, mezzi pubblici, scuole e strade” (to guard and control trains, stations, public transport, schools, and streets). This pivot reflects a growing populist sentiment that prioritizes national policing over international defense commitments. For NATO and EU allies, this is a worrying development. It suggests a potential Italian pullback from collective security arrangements and could undermine efforts to present a united front on military matters, sending a clear signal that domestic political calculations are trumping long-standing alliance obligations.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Wadephul: Presse muss in USA frei arbeiten können
— ZDF

Lega, fondi difesa siano per sicurezza interna non per armi
— Ansa

Innovationsindex: Deutschland rutscht aus Top Ten
— ZDF

Wie Biolumineszenz unsere LEDs ablösen könnte
— ZDF

Sundance Institute, ‘l’eredità di Redford continuerà a guidarci’
— Ansa

Il prezzo del gas chiude in rialzo a 32,33 euro
— Ansa