The UN “snap-back” mechanism has fully re-activated the 2015 sanctions regime on Iran after EU-3 negotiators declared Tehran “non-compliant” at midnight GMT. The measures re-ban arms sales, uranium enrichment-related trade and dozens of Iranian entities, resetting the diplomatic clock to pre-JCPOA days and gutting what little leverage the West still possessed. (reuters.com)

History suggests economic pain will arrive faster than political compromise. When comparable UN sanctions cut Iranian oil exports by two-thirds in 2012, consumer prices jumped 35 % in a single year; today inflation is already above 40 % and the rial trades near 600,000 to the dollar. If Iran again removes IAEA cameras—as hard-liners threaten—the risk premium on the 17 million-bpd Strait of Hormuz flows could surge, rattling a still-fragile global dis-inflation story. (iea.org)

The deeper pattern is a sanctions reflex that repeatedly substitutes pressure for strategy. Western capitals are wagering that economic gravity will bend Tehran back to talks, yet the record since 2018 shows the opposite: ever-tighter embargoes have coincided with ever-higher enrichment. As political scientist Kenneth Waltz warned, “States facing existential threats learn to play the long game better than their adversaries.”

— The Gist AI Editor

East Asian Trade Winds Shift

In Japan, a leading contender to helm the ruling LDP, Sanae Takaichi, signaled a potential recalibration of economic allegiances, suggesting a trade deal with the US could face review if it proves disadvantageous to Japanese interests (Bloomberg). This move reflects a growing global trend of national-interest-first trade policies, challenging established bilateral agreements. For business leaders, this introduces a new layer of political risk to supply chains and investment strategies dependent on the stability of one of the world’s most significant trade partnerships.

Europe’s Eastern Frontier Votes

Moldovans are at a critical juncture today, with parliamentary elections posing a stark choice between deeper European Union integration and a return to Russia’s sphere of influence (Bloomberg). The vote pits President Maia Sandu’s pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity against Moscow-aligned opposition. This election serves as a real-time barometer of Russia’s sway in Eastern Europe and the EU’s magnetic pull, with significant implications for regional stability and the future alignment of former Soviet states.

A Bridge to China Falls

Jerome Cohen, a towering figure who pioneered the Western study of China’s legal system, has died at 95 (NYT). Long before official engagement normalized, Cohen’s scholarship and later legal practice provided a crucial, independent channel for understanding the opaque legal culture of the People’s Republic. His passing marks the end of an era of academic diplomacy that fostered foundational commercial and human rights dialogues between the US and China, a form of soft power often more effective than statecraft.

Iran Sanctions Meet Diplomacy

Following the reimplementation of UN sanctions, the US and European powers are renewing diplomatic overtures toward Iran (Bloomberg). US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that a negotiated agreement remains the “best outcome,” urging Tehran to re-engage with nuclear inspectors and return to the bargaining table. This dual-track approach of applying economic pressure while leaving the door open for talks underscores the West’s preference for containment through diplomacy over direct military confrontation.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The South Korean senior citizen estate agents that are among the world’s cheapest
— Financial Times

Japan’s LDP Contender Takaichi Hints at Review of US Trade Deal
— Bloomberg

Jerome Cohen, Lawyer Who Plumbed Chinese Legal System, Dies at 95
— New York Times Global

Economists want Christopher Waller as next Fed chair but expect to be disappointed
— Financial Times

The right and the art of putting on a united front
— Financial Times

US, European Powers Seek Diplomacy After Iran Sanctions Snapback
— Bloomberg

Iran’s Diplomatic Isolation Resumes

The snapback of UN sanctions on Iran, effective 2:01 AM CET, marks a profound failure of European diplomacy and a return to a policy of containment over engagement (ZDF, Ansa). After a decade, the 2015 nuclear accord is officially a relic. While German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul calls for new negotiations, the reality is that the West has lost its primary leverage, reverting to economic pressure that has historically failed to alter Tehran’s strategic calculus. This pivot back to sanctions culture, championed by a more assertive US policy, undermines the EU’s claim to an independent foreign policy and forces European firms into a stark choice between US markets and Iranian potential. The move deepens geopolitical fissures, risking further destabilisation in the Middle East as Iran is pushed closer to Russia and China.

Italy’s Coalition Divided on Bank Windfall Tax

A deep ideological rift has surfaced in Italy’s ruling coalition over a proposed tax on bank profits. The Lega party is championing a €5 billion levy on what it terms “extra profits” to fund support for families and businesses (Ansa). However, its partner, Forza Italia, has drawn a hard line, stating unequivocally, “As long as Forza Italia is in government, there will never be taxes on extra profits.” This clash is more than a policy disagreement; it’s a battle over the government’s economic soul. It pits a populist, interventionist impulse against a core free-market principle. For investors, this signals significant policy uncertainty and highlights the fragility of a coalition wrestling with its own identity, potentially paralysing meaningful economic reform.

Moldova at a Crossroads

Moldova’s legislative elections today present a stark choice between two futures, with polls showing the pro-EU and pro-Russian blocs in a dead heat. The governing pro-European party (PAS) is polling at 24.9%, just ahead of the pro-Russian bloc’s 24.7% (Ansa). This razor-thin margin underscores the deep cultural and political division within the nation. The outcome will determine whether Moldova continues on its path toward EU integration or pivots back into Moscow’s orbit. For Brussels, a pro-Russian turn in a candidate country would be a strategic setback, undermining its Eastern Partnership policy and potentially creating another source of instability on the EU’s border at a time of heightened regional tension.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Wadephul ruft Iran zu neuen Verhandlungen im Atomstreit auf
— ZDF

Lega, da banche 5 miliardi. Ma FI: ‘Mai tasse su extraprofitti
— Ansa

Chimps regularly consume alcohol, study finds
— Deutsche Welle

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Atom-Sanktionen gegen Iran in Kraft getreten
— ZDF

Tornano in vigore sanzioni dell’Onu all’Iran dopo 10 anni
— Ansa