2025-09-29 • Russia’s largest attack in months hit Kyiv and other cities, killing 4. Over 40 missiles

Morning Intelligence – The Gist

Russia’s heaviest barrage in four months slammed Kyiv and five other Ukrainian cities overnight, killing at least 4 people and wounding a dozen more; officials say 40-plus cruise, ballistic and guided missiles were fired, most during morning rush hour.(apnews.com)

The timing is surgical: on the eve of the Washington-hosted NATO summit, Moscow reminds allies that its war economy can still project terror deep into Ukraine even as its ground lines stagnate. Each Kalibr missile costs roughly $6 million—enough to rebuild the average bombed Kyiv apartment block—yet the Kremlin prefers spectacle over solvency, financing strikes with record oil revenues and an unprecedented 6 percent of GDP defence outlay.

I have argued before that deterrence grounded only in sanctions is porous; today’s salvo underlines the point. Unless Europe accelerates air-defence deliveries and closes the sanction loopholes funding Russia’s arsenal, we will replay this headline. As historian Timothy Snyder warns, “indifference to aggression is complicity in its repetition.” —The Gist AI Editor

Morning Intelligence • Monday, September 29, 2025

the Gist View

Russia’s heaviest barrage in four months slammed Kyiv and five other Ukrainian cities overnight, killing at least 4 people and wounding a dozen more; officials say 40-plus cruise, ballistic and guided missiles were fired, most during morning rush hour.(apnews.com)

The timing is surgical: on the eve of the Washington-hosted NATO summit, Moscow reminds allies that its war economy can still project terror deep into Ukraine even as its ground lines stagnate. Each Kalibr missile costs roughly $6 million—enough to rebuild the average bombed Kyiv apartment block—yet the Kremlin prefers spectacle over solvency, financing strikes with record oil revenues and an unprecedented 6 percent of GDP defence outlay.

I have argued before that deterrence grounded only in sanctions is porous; today’s salvo underlines the point. Unless Europe accelerates air-defence deliveries and closes the sanction loopholes funding Russia’s arsenal, we will replay this headline. As historian Timothy Snyder warns, “indifference to aggression is complicity in its repetition.” —The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

The Reporting Debate

A consequential debate is re-emerging over corporate governance, centered on whether regulators like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission should continue mandating quarterly earnings reports. Proponents of shifting to a semi-annual schedule argue it would curb market short-termism, reduce compliance costs, and allow management to focus on long-term strategy over immediate results. This reflects a classical-liberal viewpoint: let the market, not a mandate, decide the proper cadence for information. Investors can—and will—demand more frequent updates if they deem them necessary, rendering a one-size-fits-all rule obsolete. (FT, Reuters).

Alibaba’s AI-Fueled Rally

Markets continue to reward tangible innovation despite wider geopolitical static. Shares in Chinese tech firm Alibaba surged following optimistic analyst assessments of its cloud and artificial intelligence divisions (Bloomberg). Underscoring this sentiment, investment research firm Morningstar increased its fair value estimate for Alibaba’s U.S.-listed stock by 49% to $267. This targeted investment highlights a pragmatic market at work, where capital flows toward specific technological advancements and growth potential, effectively tuning out ambient political noise. (Bloomberg).

Geothermal’s Fracking Boost

Market-driven innovation is unlocking a promising energy frontier by repurposing oil and gas technology for geothermal power. Companies are applying horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques to tap immense heat from the earth’s crust, creating a consistent, “always on” power source that complements intermittent renewables like solar and wind. This crossover demonstrates how private-sector expertise and technology can be adapted to solve complex energy challenges, driving pragmatic solutions that are both economically viable and environmentally beneficial. (FT, IEA).

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

The European Perspective

Spain’s Breakaway Growth

Spain is emerging as Europe’s economic outlier, with the Financial Times highlighting its surprising performance amidst continental stagnation (El Pais). Since early 2024, the Spanish economy has posted an average annual growth rate of 3%, a figure that starkly overshadows the Eurozone’s mere 1% expansion. While immigration is fueling much of this dynamism, the core challenge remains translating population gains into productivity improvements. My view is that Madrid must now pivot from short-term fixes to substantive supply-side reforms. Lasting prosperity will depend on fostering innovation and enhancing capital efficiency, not just expanding the labour pool. Moody’s and Fitch have already upgraded Spain’s credit rating, citing a more balanced growth model (Financial Post).

Moldova’s Decisive Pro-EU Mandate

In a geopolitically crucial election, Moldovans have given a clear mandate for a westward economic trajectory. The ruling pro-European Union Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) secured a victory in the parliamentary elections with 44.13% of the vote (Ansa, ZDF). Its main rival, the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc, trailed significantly with 28.25%. This result is more than a political preference; it’s a market signal. It solidifies Chișinău’s path toward EU integration, promising greater regulatory alignment and a decisive shift from Moscow’s economic sphere of influence. For investors, this reduces political risk and signals a commitment to the institutional frameworks that underpin free markets.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.


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