Good evening,

Iraq’s long-stalled Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is flowing again, sending 180-190 kb/d of Kurdish crude to Türkiye after a 30-month freeze that cost Baghdad an estimated $35 bn in lost revenue. The tripartite deal brokered by Baghdad, Erbil and eight IOCs arrives just as OPEC+ signals a 137 kb/d November hike, pushing Brent down to $69.79 and reminding markets how quickly barrels can return when politics align. (reuters.com)

The restart exposes two contradictions. First, Iraq is pleading for a higher OPEC quota even as it adds supply unilaterally—echoing the 2018-19 cycle when quota busting foreshadowed price collapse. Second, Kurdistan’s revenue will still be audited by Baghdad, underscoring how “autonomous” oil remains a federal lifeline whenever prices sag; sovereignty yields to solvency.

History rhymes: in 2014 the same corridor reopened after ISIS sabotage, only for under-investment to halve output within five years. Today, with drone strikes and $16/bl IOC compensation barely covering costs, production could again falter unless legal certainty follows political theatre. As Amartya Sen warned, “freedom is not only the absence of coercion but the presence of economic capability.”

— The Gist AI Editor

Tech’s New Private Era

Private capital is making its largest move yet in the technology sector. Video game giant Electronic Arts has agreed to a $55 billion deal to be taken private by a consortium including Silver Lake, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and Affinity Partners. This transaction marks the biggest-ever leveraged buyout, a finance strategy using borrowed capital to acquire a company. The move signals a belief that significant value can be unlocked away from the pressures of public markets and quarterly earnings reports, reflecting a broader trend of sovereign wealth and private equity reshaping major global industries.

Moscow’s Budget Pressure

Russia’s wartime economy is facing a significant fiscal test as budget revenues from oil and gas are projected to fall to their lowest levels since 2020. This decline is attributed to a combination of lower global energy prices and a stronger ruble, squeezing the Kremlin’s primary source of hard currency. The revenue drop—over 20% in the first eight months of 2025 compared to the previous year—highlights the inherent vulnerability of an economy heavily dependent on commodity exports amid sustained international sanctions and market volatility.

The Trump Market Effect

President Trump continues to wield significant influence over market dynamics, both as a businessman and a political figure. His family’s business is expanding its footprint in the Gulf with a new $1 billion property project in Saudi Arabia, a deal done in partnership with London-based developer Dar Global. Simultaneously, his social media posts touting the potential healthcare benefits of cannabidiol (CBD) for seniors triggered a sharp rally in cannabis stocks, with some companies seeing shares surge by approximately 20%. These developments underscore how capital flows and investor sentiment are increasingly reactive to personal brands and political signaling.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Scottish Labour leader rules out deal with Farage, brands him a ‘charlatan’
— Politico.Eu

Trump’s business expands in booming Gulf property market with $1bn Red Sea project
— Financial Times

Cannabis stocks surge after Trump touts senior healthcare benefits
— Financial Times

Commission backs Costa’s plan to sidestep Hungary’s veto over Ukraine’s EU bid
— Politico.Eu

Video games maker Electronic Arts strikes $55bn deal to go private
— Financial Times

Russia Faces Wartime Budget Hit as Oil, Gas Revenue to Slide
— Bloomberg

Germany’s Infrastructure Bet

Berlin is committing to a colossal €500 billion special fund for infrastructure and climate projects, a significant pivot from its traditional fiscal conservatism. This debt-financed move bypasses the country’s constitutional “debt brake,” signaling that urgent investments now officially trump rigid adherence to borrowing limits. The funds are earmarked for everything from energy grids and transport to digitalisation and education over the next decade. While proponents see a long-overdue modernisation push, my concern is the sheer scale of off-budget spending. It sets a precarious precedent for fiscal discipline across the EU, potentially weakening the very principles that underpin the Eurozone’s stability. The key will be ensuring transparent allocation and avoiding the creation of white elephant projects. (ZDF), (Clean Energy Wire)

Lufthansa’s Digital Gambit

Lufthansa is trimming its administrative workforce, announcing plans to cut 4,000 jobs by 2030. The airline asserts this isn’t a simple cost-cutting measure but a strategic shift driven by digitalisation and AI, aiming to streamline operations after a series of acquisitions. This move, affecting roughly 4% of its global workforce, is designed to make the German carrier more competitive against rivals who boast higher profit margins. While operational staff like pilots and cabin crew are reportedly safe, the move underscores a broader trend: legacy industries embracing automation to shed inefficiencies. The risk is that a leaner administrative staff could impact service quality and operational resilience down the line if not managed with precision. (ZDF), (Reuters)

Market Signals

In the markets, we’re seeing some interesting crosscurrents. The spread between 10-year Italian government bonds (BTPs) and their German counterparts (Bunds) has narrowed to 82.4 basis points. This tightening spread, a key barometer of investor confidence, suggests easing concerns over Italy’s fiscal health relative to Germany’s. Meanwhile, natural gas futures for October delivery settled lower at €32 per Megawatt-hour on the benchmark Dutch TTF hub. The 1.9% dip points to comfortable storage levels across the continent as we head into the heating season, a welcome sign for consumers and businesses alike after years of volatility. (ANSA)

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Ist die Pflege “vor die Wand gefahren”?
— ZDF

24Ore Podcast Week, i podcast da non perdere
— Il Sole 24 Ore

Klingbeil zum Investitions- und Innovationsbeirat
— ZDF

Lufthansa lässt Federn, um wieder zu fliegen
— ZDF

Torna a Genova l’inaugurazione collettiva delle gallerie d’arte
— Ansa

Il gas conclude in ribasso a 32 euro al Megawattora
— Ansa