AI Models to Solve 35% of Theory Problems by 2026

Morning Intelligence • Thursday, October 15, 2026

The Gist View

MIT researcher Neil Thompson found that the best AI models solved about 35% of new theory problems by mid-2026, up from about 2% in mid-2024, according to Wired. The catch is what that score covers. His team tested only OpenAI models, from o1 to GPT-5.5, on problems from papers posted between December 2025 and May 2026, with internet access blocked. The study does not show the answers are correct without expert review.

So proofs are getting cheap, but checking them is not. On 6 October, OpenAI posted 722 manuscripts, grouped into 372 result families, from an unreleased internal model. Two weeks earlier, an advisory group at the Institute for Advanced Study, a Princeton research centre, had criticised AI companies that rely on proprietary internal models. OpenAI told Scientific American it is not bound by that advice.

A lab gains headlines from volume. Referees bear the cost, and they cannot rerun a model they cannot access. By OpenAI’s own repository notes, it posed about 4,000 problems and kept only the results it judged significant.

The Gist AI Editor

The Global Overview

MIT study says AI may soon be the default tool for theoretical science

MIT researcher Neil Thompson’s latest study, reported by Wired, finds that several fields are about to be upended by AI. These include probability, statistics theory, economic theory, high-energy theory, gravitation and cosmology. Mathematics is already being automated. Theory is the cheapest science to automate because it needs no lab or equipment, only compute and a well-defined problem. Money and prestige will move toward whoever owns the largest models. Universities without that access become dependent on those who do.

Asia absorbs Middle East fuel shocks better than expected

The IMF says Asian economies have adapted to war-driven energy disruptions more effectively than anticipated, despite heavy reliance on the Middle East for fuel (WSJ). The IMF still calls that resilience uneven, and further stress tests lie ahead. Economies with more diversified suppliers and larger reserves hold up better. The rest remain exposed to the next supply interruption.

Singapore weighs legal action as Indonesian haze turns very unhealthy

Singapore will “keep its options open” on legal action against errant companies as air quality deteriorated sharply this week from Indonesian wildfires (Bloomberg). Singapore’s leverage is its courts and its ability to pursue firms with assets or operations there. Indonesia’s government cannot easily police the plantation land where the fires start.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian data centres raise legal questions

Ukraine’s strikes aimed to disrupt military planning and communication services, and Politico reports they also disrupted daily life. Servers hold both military and civilian data, so international law does not clearly say whether they are legitimate targets. Companies that host data in contested regions now face new physical risk.

Le Pen presses EU contribution cut before Thursday summit

Marine Le Pen, the front-runner in France’s presidential race, repeated her pledge to cut payments to the EU by billions of euros (Politico). She wants the Commission reduced to a “secretariat” serving member states. Meanwhile, the WSJ reports that Jean-Luc Mélenchon is a real contender and wants to cancel France’s debt. Both leading challengers threaten the financial arrangements that bind Paris to Brussels and to bond investors.

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The European Perspective

US proposes releasing part of frozen Russian assets into a Washington-run vehicle

The US has proposed that European states free a portion of the Russian state assets blocked since the invasion of Ukraine. The money would go into an instrument overseen by Washington, according to the Financial Times, as cited by ZDF. The aim is to revive peace talks. The plan was put forward by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. European delegates rejected it.

The assets sit mostly in European institutions, so Europe holds the legal custody and the leverage. Moving them under US oversight would shift control over reconstruction money, and over any sanctions bargain with Moscow, from Brussels to Washington. That explains the refusal.

Germany’s health insurers hold the extra contribution at 2.9% for 2027

Health Minister Carsten Linnemann said the average supplementary contribution for statutory health insurance stays at 2.9% next year. The insurers’ official estimators recommended the rate on Wednesday, according to ZDF. Linnemann called it the main goal after repeated increases. Finances remain strained. A flat rate on paper does not mean costs have eased. Pressure shifts to the funds’ reserves and to future budget choices.

Higher energy costs are reaching shelf prices

The ifo institute’s price-expectations index, which tracks the share of firms planning price rises, rose to 22.7 points in September from 21.4 in August (ifo). Its economist Timo Wollmershäuser expects German inflation to top 3% in coming months. Gas and power prices hit their highest since late 2022 in mid-September, and utilities are expected to raise bills in winter.

Non-obvious angle: better measured skills explain most of the global income gap

New CEPR research finds that differences in capital and human capital account for 55–70% of income gaps per worker between countries, up from about 30% in earlier estimates. Counting education quality and work experience, not just years of schooling, drives the change. The implication for aid and investment budgets is that training quality may matter more than previously assumed.

Berlin’s left coalition talks hang on an antisemitism dispute

Exploratory talks among Berlin’s SPD, Greens and Left Party continue today despite a dispute over antisemitic currents in the Left, according to Politico. The national SPD faces weak polls ahead of its December party conference.

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

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