Russia vows a “firm response” after Moldova expels a diplomat
Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, said on Friday that a Russian attack drone of the Geran type had violated Moldovan airspace. In response, a Russian embassy staff member was declared persona non grata (ordered to leave the country). According to Le Monde’s live coverage, Moscow has promised a “firm response”.
The incentives are plain. Moldova is not a NATO member, so it has no collective-defence guarantee. Expelling one diplomat is the strongest step it can take without raising the risk of direct conflict. Russia gains by testing how little it costs to cross a border. Each incident that ends in a diplomatic exchange sets a precedent for the next one. Expect Chisinau to seek more air-defence help from the EU.
German firms are passing energy costs on to customers
The ifo institute’s price expectations index rose to 22.7 points in September, from 21.4 in August. The index measures how many firms plan to raise prices. The ifo says its chief economist, Timo Wollmershäuser, expects German inflation to climb above 3% in the coming months. Crude oil rose again after the blockade of the Bab al-Mandab strait. Gas and power prices hit their highest since late 2022 in mid-September (ifo).
Fuel and heating oil have already risen. Utilities are expected to raise power and gas tariffs in winter. Energy producers and importers gain, while households and energy-heavy manufacturers pay.
Berlin’s coalition looks less secure as Merz addresses the CSU
At the CSU party congress in Munich, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s speech was received politely, but ZDF reports that confidence in him appears to be fading. Delegates applauded the mere mention of Ilse Aigner, the popular Bavarian parliament president, more warmly than much of his speech. Markus Söder, the CSU leader, said his party will work with neither far-right nor far-left extremists (ZDF).
The non-obvious point is that Merz’s problem sits inside his own conservative bloc. A partner that rewards a rival’s name more than the chancellor’s own speech has more leverage over budget and energy policy.
French police use tear gas as cost-of-living marches end
Police fired tear gas in several cities on Saturday (Politico Europe). Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez had told forces to be “uncompromising”. Tougher policing appeared to prevent early incidents but drew criticism from unions and left-wing leaders. Il Sole 24 Ore reported that thousands marched peacefully in Paris against the cost of living.
Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.
