Today’s essential intelligence on markets, energy, AI and geopolitics.
Key takeaways:
• Geopolitical Tensions and Political Shifts
• Advancements in Space Exploration and Material Science
• Global Repatriation Efforts for Cultural Artifacts
Ten companies produce two-thirds of US profit growth
Earnings concentration is now the main risk in the US market. Serbia votes on whether students can end Vucic’s long rule
Serbia holds an early parliamentary election on 25 October after two years of student-led, anti-corruption protests, according to Deutsche Welle.
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Transcript
JOHN: Welcome to The Gist. I’m John.
MARY: And I’m Mary. It’s Sunday, October 25th, 2026. You’re listening to your smart friend on the go.
JOHN: We read the news, we follow the money, and we tell you who benefits. Let’s get right into it.
MARY: Today’s Gist View looks at a very top-heavy stock market.
JOHN: Ten companies. That is all it takes to generate roughly two-thirds of all corporate profit growth in the US right now.
MARY: And leading that pack are AI-chip designer Nvidia, and memory-chip maker Micron, according to the Wall Street Journal.
JOHN: Here is the catch. Their massive profit is simply someone else’s spending.
MARY: Exactly. Cloud-computing giants like Microsoft and Amazon are buying these chips by the truckload. Most regular investors hold index funds. These funds buy stocks based on a company’s size. So, your retirement account is basically betting that big tech keeps buying AI hardware.
JOHN: Why don’t the tech giants just stop? Incentives. If Amazon or Microsoft cuts their spending first, they risk losing clients to a rival who kept building.
MARY: And Wall Street punishes whoever retreats first. So, they keep buying.
JOHN: But the bill always comes due. Buyers spread the cost of these chips over several years. Today’s massive supplier profits become tomorrow’s drag on the buyers’ earnings.
MARY: It is a classic trap. What is totally rational for one company becomes dangerous when everyone does it at the same time.
JOHN: We have seen this movie before. Back in March of 2000, telecom companies bought miles of fiber-optic cables from equipment sellers like Cisco. By late 2002, the Nasdaq index had crashed by 78 percent.
MARY: History doesn’t repeat, but it certainly rhymes.
JOHN: Moving to the Global Overview. Let’s talk about founder power. The Wall Street Journal reports that the CEO of Trade Desk, Jeff Green, just overrode his own investors.
MARY: Trade Desk’s share price recently took a hit. When a stock falls, an executive’s stock options lose their value. So, Green pushed through a move to reprice those options.
JOHN: Repricing just lowers the target price. It means executives can still buy shares cheaply and make money, even though the company’s stock fell.
MARY: Regular investors hated this and voted against it. But Green has “supervoting” shares. These give founders extra votes per single share. He used them to push the deal through anyway.
JOHN: The lesson? When founders hold supervoting shares, they write the rules.
MARY: Let’s pivot to trade. Donald Trump was campaigning in Georgia. He announced that Volkswagen agreed to build a 4.2 billion dollar Audi plant right there in the state, according to Bloomberg.
JOHN: Trump pitched this as a win for tariffs. And if you look at the resource flows, it makes sense for everyone involved.
MARY: Right. If a German carmaker ships cars into the US, they pay an import tax. If they build locally in Georgia, they skip the tax entirely.
JOHN: Georgia gets the jobs. Volkswagen gets cost certainty in its biggest export market. And Trump gets a massive talking point for voters.
MARY: Next up, the Middle East. A brand new Saudi airline just launched. But the timing is tough.
JOHN: The Wall Street Journal notes it is launching right amid ongoing violence aimed at civilian aviation. The kingdom built this airline to support its grand economic plans.
MARY: Those plans rely heavily on tourism, business travel, and cargo hubs. You cannot have any of those without safe skies. Now, insurance costs are spiking, and flights are being rerouted.
JOHN: It is a huge hurdle for a new business trying to compete globally.
MARY: Finally in Asia, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is making moves. He pledged more help for workers, but his big focus is securing energy, according to Bloomberg.
JOHN: Singapore imports almost all of its energy. So for them, locking in international energy deals isn’t just business. It is their primary economic shield.
MARY: Turning to The European Perspective. Let’s start with a major election happening today in Serbia.
JOHN: Voters are heading to the polls to decide if a student-led, anti-corruption movement can end Aleksandar Vucic’s long rule.
MARY: Deutsche Welle reports it is a tight race. And the stakes stretch way beyond Serbia’s borders.
JOHN: Belgrade sits at a geopolitical crossroads. They balance ties between Brussels, Moscow, and Beijing.
MARY: If the government changes, the winners get to decide who holds the country’s lucrative contracts for energy, infrastructure, and weapons.
JOHN: Speaking of weapons, Germany and its allies are gearing up. In November, a “Coalition of the Willing” will run its first military exercise.
MARY: German broadcaster ZDF reports this involves Poland, Romanian airspace, and the western Black Sea. France and Britain are leading it, and Germany is sending staff officers, tanker aircraft, and logistics.
JOHN: The goal? To secure a potential ceasefire with Russia in Ukraine. They are testing their logistics before any truce actually exists.
MARY: And if you follow the money, the immediate beneficiaries are defense contractors. Especially those providing air refueling and transport.
JOHN: Further east, Poland and Ukraine are trying to cool down a historical dispute.
MARY: It is over how to commemorate the Volhynia massacre from World War Two. ZDF notes that both governments are working hard to defuse it.
JOHN: Why? Because Poland is the main supply route into Ukraine. Even a purely symbolic dispute carries heavy logistical weight. You cannot let a fight over history block the supply trucks today.
MARY: Finally, let’s look at your wallet. Energy costs are hitting the supermarket shelves right here in Germany.
JOHN: The ifo index, which tracks German companies’ planned price hikes, jumped in September. Natural gas and power prices recently hit their highest levels since late 2022.
MARY: The ifo institute expects German inflation to cross 3 percent in the coming months. Utilities will likely hike household rates this winter.
JOHN: But here is the non-obvious angle. Oil shocks do not hit everyone the same way anymore.
MARY: Economic researchers at CEPR found that the US barely feels the sting of oil supply cuts now. Thanks to the shale boom, the US has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter.
JOHN: That makes life much easier for the US Federal Reserve. But Europe is still a massive importer. When global oil gets squeezed, Europe has no cushion. We feel the full impact.
MARY: And that brings us to today’s temperature check. The global market is riding entirely on a handful of AI chips. Founders are flexing their voting muscle to secure their paychecks. And from US elections to European military logistics, political leverage is dictating where the big money flows. Innovation is speeding up, but the economic cushions are getting much thinner, depending entirely on where you live.
JOHN: That is the gist for Sunday. Thanks for starting your day with us.
MARY: If you found today’s breakdown useful, we’d love for you to get The Gist in your inbox every morning. It’s completely free—just tap the subscribe link right there in the show notes.
JOHN: See you tomorrow.
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