Washington’s overnight decision to sanction Rosneft and Lukoil—firms that together handle roughly 40 % of Russia’s 7 m bpd oil exports—signals a decisive break from the White House’s earlier carrot-first diplomacy. Within hours, Brent gained more than $2, and Indian refiners were “reviewing contracts,” underscoring how a move by one capital can jolt supply chains spanning three continents. (reuters.com)

For Moscow, the squeeze lands as EU states debate a 19th sanctions package and NATO rehearses nuclear deterrence—an echo of 2014’s Crimea playbook, but with energy rather than banking at the choke point. History suggests efficacy: Russia’s 2014 oil-service curbs cut upstream investment 25 % in two years. Yet today’s leverage is double-edged; hitting Russian barrels risks re-inflating global inflation just as central banks tiptoe toward rate cuts. (reuters.com)

The broader pattern is clear: hydrocarbons remain the fulcrum of 21st-century geopolitics. As IEA chief Fatih Birol warns, “Energy security is the enabler of economic security—lose one and you imperil both.” Whether allies align or fracture over secondary sanctions will determine if this gambit hastens peace or merely shifts costs to consumers. (reuters.com)

— The Gist AI Editor

Green Steel’s Swedish Proving Ground

A venture in northern Sweden is poised to decarbonize one of the world’s most carbon-intensive industries. H2 Green Steel has secured a robust €6.5 billion in financing to construct the world’s first large-scale green steel plant in Boden (FT, Sustainability Directory). The project will use hydrogen, produced with renewable electricity, to remove oxygen from iron ore—a process that emits water instead of CO2. This method slashes emissions by up to 95% compared to traditional coal-fired blast furnaces. With production aiming to start in 2025 and a target of 5 million tons of nearly fossil-free steel by 2030, the initiative signals a viable market-based path for heavy industry decarbonization.

Beijing’s Rare Earth Leverage

China is tightening its strategic grip on the global supply of rare earth elements, critical minerals essential for everything from electric vehicles to advanced defense systems (Politico.eu). Beijing’s dominance is profound, controlling approximately 70% of global rare earth mining and nearly 90% of the processing capacity. Recent export restrictions on processed rare earth materials are not merely a trade tactic but a clear signal of Beijing’s leverage over Western economies’ green and digital ambitions. This dependency creates significant supply chain vulnerabilities, forcing a strategic reconsideration of sourcing and processing outside of China’s sphere of influence.

Global Energy Flows Realign

Global energy markets are recalibrating in response to new US sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The sanctions are expected to cause Russian oil flows to major Indian refiners to plummet to near zero, disrupting a significant trade relationship that has grown over the past three years (Bloomberg, Reuters). This move aims to curtail Moscow’s energy revenues. Concurrently, US energy export capacity is expanding. Australia’s Woodside Energy is advancing its Louisiana LNG project, now a $9.9 billion venture after securing a partnership with infrastructure firm Williams, which will inject about $1.9 billion (WSJ). This highlights a broader strategic pivot in global energy supply chains.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world.

Collective DC schemes will play ‘significant role’ in pensions, says UK minister
— Financial Times

Let’s fall in love with cars again
— Financial Times

Sweden’s new green challenger could evade the Northvolt curse
— Financial Times

Liz Truss thinks Green Party could be Britain’s next official opposition
— Politico.Eu

Woodside Energy Would Like at Least One More Partner for Louisiana LNG
— Wall Street Journal

Indian Refinery Officials Say Russian Oil Flows Will Plunge
— Bloomberg

Weight-Loss Drugs’ Wider Win

A landmark study on semaglutide, the active compound in popular weight-loss drugs, reveals its cardiovascular benefits are independent of weight reduction. The research found the drug cuts the risk of heart attack or stroke, suggesting a mechanism beyond simply shedding kilograms. While a shrinking waistline correlated with better heart outcomes, the core protective effect remained even for patients with minimal weight loss. This decouples the drug’s value from the scale, reframing it as a cardiovascular treatment. For health systems, this could justify broader use, shifting the economic calculus from an obesity treatment to a mainstream cardiac preventative, with significant fiscal and public health implications (The Guardian).

Europe’s Digital Crossroads

EU leaders are set to endorse a “sovereign digital transition” this week, yet Franco-German divisions expose the bloc’s struggle to escape reliance on U.S. technology. The debate was underscored by a recent Amazon Web Services outage that disrupted services across Europe, highlighting a critical vulnerability. While Paris advocates for strong “buy European” public procurement rules to nurture local champions, Berlin fears this approach could harm its export-oriented economy and prefers a more open, globally competitive strategy. This fundamental disagreement on industrial policy—protectionism versus free trade—stalls any meaningful move away from Big Tech, leaving the EU’s digital autonomy in limbo (Politico).

Germany’s Engine Rebellion

The EU’s plan to ban new combustion engine sales from 2035 is facing renewed pressure from within Germany. State premiers, particularly from automotive powerhouses like Bavaria and Lower Saxony, are lobbying for a formal carve-out for vehicles running on e-fuels. This isn’t just a rearguard action; it’s a strategic push for technological neutrality over a single, mandated solution (EVs). The argument posits that innovation in synthetic fuels offers a path to decarbonize the existing vehicle fleet and preserve a key industrial sector. This regional pushback challenges the top-down regulatory approach from Brussels, questioning the wisdom of picking technology winners (Politico).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

EU-Gipfel und MPK: Kippt das Verbrenner-Aus?
— Politico Europe

Trump targets European climate law after killing UN shipping fee
— Politico Europe

Weight-loss drug cuts heart attack risk regardless of kilograms shed, study finds
— The Guardian

Aktuelles zum Krieg in der Ukraine
— ZDF

Auswärtsfahrt in den Hexenkessel: VfB zu Gast bei Fenerbahce
— ZDF

EU-Staaten einigen sich auf schärfere Russland-Sanktionen
— ZDF