Category: Uncategorized

Evening Analysis – The Gist Polish police have arrested Volodymyr Z., the Ukrainian diver sought by Germany for the 2022 Nord Stream blasts that severed pipelines capable of carrying 55 billion m³ of Russian gas annually to Europe.‏(reuters.com) His capture revives the question few European leaders wish to confront: sabotage is no longer a metaphor…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The White House’s 20-point Gaza blueprint lands like a diplomatic thunderclap: a 72-hour ceasefire, a 1:7 hostage-for-prisoner ratio (250 lifers plus 1,700 detainees), and an International Stabilisation Force to police a demilitarised strip. Trump secures Netanyahu’s assent, yet Hamas remains silent – the plan’s Achilles heel. (reuters.com) Beyond the headlines,…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Good evening, Iraq’s long-stalled Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is flowing again, sending 180-190 kb/d of Kurdish crude to Türkiye after a 30-month freeze that cost Baghdad an estimated $35 bn in lost revenue. The tripartite deal brokered by Baghdad, Erbil and eight IOCs arrives just as OPEC+ signals a 137 kb/d November…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Russia’s heaviest barrage in four months slammed Kyiv and five other Ukrainian cities overnight, killing at least 4 people and wounding a dozen more; officials say 40-plus cruise, ballistic and guided missiles were fired, most during morning rush hour.(apnews.com) The timing is surgical: on the eve of the Washington-hosted NATO…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Russia hurled 595 drones and 48 missiles at Kyiv and eight other regions overnight, killing 4, injuring ≈70 and forcing Poland briefly to close its airspace. Ukrainian defenses intercepted most threats, yet a cardiology clinic and residential blocks were shattered—evidence that Moscow’s “military-only” narrative is fiction. (reuters.com) This barrage is…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The UN “snap-back” mechanism has fully re-activated the 2015 sanctions regime on Iran after EU-3 negotiators declared Tehran “non-compliant” at midnight GMT. The measures re-ban arms sales, uranium enrichment-related trade and dozens of Iranian entities, resetting the diplomatic clock to pre-JCPOA days and gutting what little leverage the West still…

Evening Analysis – The Gist The U.S. Supreme Court’s 5-4 decision to let President Trump keep $4 billion in congressionally-approved foreign-aid funds on ice tilts the separation-of-powers balance toward an ever-expansive executive. By blessing a “pocket rescission,” the Court effectively grants the White House a de-facto line-item veto Congress has repeatedly refused to legislate. (reuters.com)…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Tehran just lost its diplomatic gamble. Early this morning the U.N. Security Council rejected a Russian-Chinese bid to delay the automatic “snap-back” of sanctions on Iran, with the motion failing 4-9 and two abstentions. The result means that as of Sunday, Tehran again faces a global arms embargo, ballistic-missile restrictions…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used his UN podium today to double-down on a Gaza offensive that has already killed more than 65,000 Palestinians and displaced 90 percent of the enclave’s 2.3 million people(reuters.com). Over 100 diplomats from 50-plus countries walked out as he vowed to “finish the job,” even…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Europe’s leaders quietly crossed a monetary Rubicon overnight. Berlin signalled it could back Brussels’ proposal to leverage up to €200 billion in frozen Russian reserves to bankroll Ukraine via EU-backed bonds, while Chancellor Merz urged a parallel €140 billion interest-free loan for Kyiv’s armoury. (reuters.com) The sums matter: €200 billion…