Category: Uncategorized

Evening Analysis – The Gist Ukrainian drones ignited Russia’s Kirishi refinery (355,000 bpd) and hit the Primorsk export terminal, pushing Brent up 0.5 % to $67.35 and WTI to $63.05 as markets priced fresh supply risk.(reuters.com) Together, the facilities move roughly 1.3 mbd—more than Norway’s total crude output—so even minor outages reverberate across global pricing…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The Doha emergency Arab-Islamic summit, convening today, is more than regional theatre; it is a stress-test of the post-Abraham-Accords order. A leaked draft warns that Israel’s 9 September strike on Hamas officials in Qatar “threatens everything achieved on the path of normalising ties” (reuters.com). Gulf monarchies that once prized quiet…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Israel’s overnight demolition of at least 30 apartment blocks in Gaza City—killing 40 and displacing thousands—coincides with U.​S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s arrival to “re-energise” mediation efforts derailed by last week’s Israeli strike in Doha, Qatar (reuters.com) The timing exposes Washington’s strategic dilemma: Rubio must reassure an ally even…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist China’s Southern Theatre Command used yesterday’s routine patrol to deliver a blunt warning to Manila: “stop provocations or bear the consequences.” (reuters.com) Beijing’s rhetoric follows its plan—announced 3 days earlier—to ring-fence Scarborough Shoal as a “nature reserve,” a move the Philippines and Washington label unlawful. (apnews.com) Taken together, these steps…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Good evening, Kamchatka’s 7.4-magnitude jolt is a reminder that the “Ring of Fire” is the world’s most globalized supply chain—one built of tectonic plates, not container ships. The quake, 112 km east of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and only 39 km deep, triggered Pacific-wide tsunami alerts that briefly put coastlines from Japan to…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced ex-president Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years + 3 months for orchestrating a failed 2022 coup attempt—Brazil’s first former head of state jailed for attacking democratic order. Four of five justices found him guilty of plotting to abolish constitutional rule and leading an armed criminal group;…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Brent crude sliding to $65.88 and WTI to $61.86 marks oil’s steepest one-day fall since 2022, driven by a 3.9 million-barrel U.S. stock-build and an IEA projection that global supply will outpace demand through mid-2026. (reuters.com) Yet Riyadh and its OPEC partners added 478,000 bpd in August and plan another…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Russian drones breaching 300 km into Polish airspace—16 shot down, fragments scattered across seven provinces—force Warsaw to invoke NATO Article 4 and prompt an emergency UN Security Council session today(reuters.com). Brussels brands the incursion “aggressive, reckless,” while Berlin rushes extra Patriots east and the Netherlands deploys F-35s, underscoring how a…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Israel’s precision strike on a Hamas negotiating cell in Doha—killing six, including Khalil al-Hayya’s son—turned Qatar, the Gulf state that hosts 10,000 U.S. troops, into the sixth country hit by Israeli missiles in 72 hours. The attack shattered the mediation track Washington relies on and drew rare U.S., EU and…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Charlie Kirk’s campus assassination jolts not only U.S. politics but the wider liberal-democratic world: a G-20 economy has lost a high-profile partisan voice to a gunman, just eight weeks after two attempts on former President Trump. Markets shrugged, but diplomats did not; the EU’s foreign-service called it “a warning to…