Category: Uncategorized

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Moscow’s overnight barrage—396 drones and missiles—plunged 1.2 million Ukrainian households, including 800 000 in Kyiv, into sub-zero darkness while peace envoys from Kyiv, Washington and Moscow were still shaking hands in Abu Dhabi. One civilian died, at least 15 were injured and 6 000 Kyiv apartment blocks lost heat amid…

Evening Analysis – The Gist President Trump’s threat of a 100 % blanket tariff on every Canadian import—retaliation for Ottawa’s tentative EV-for-agro pact with Beijing—signals a deliberate weaponisation of North America’s US$ 795 bn annual goods trade. Canada sells 74 % of its exports southward; a tariff of this scale would erase an estimated 1.5…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Western allies spent Davos trying to quiet a geopolitical absurdity: a U.S. president who still wants to own Greenland. EU leaders now speak openly of “de-risking” from Washington after Donald Trump threatened 10 % tariffs on eight European economies, then back-pedaled only when markets wobbled.(ft.com) The episode is less comic…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Washington’s overnight retreat on Greenland tariffs is less about face-saving than power-mapping. Forty-eight hours ago the White House threatened 10 % duties on eight EU economies—rising to 25 % by 1 June—unless they stopped “blocking America’s destiny in the Arctic.” Brussels counter-brandished its new Anti-Coercion Instrument: €93 bn in retaliatory…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Abu Dhabi hosts the first-ever U.S.–Ukraine–Russia trilateral since 2022, an extraordinary pivot engineered by Trump envoys after Putin’s midnight Kremlin session and Zelenskyy’s Davos plea. The 48-hour technical talks open with territory, NATO posture and frozen-asset funding on the table—issues that kept 14 earlier bilateral formats from sticking. (theguardian.com) Four…

Evening Analysis – The Gist EU leaders called an emergency Brussels summit today after President Trump’s fleeting 10 % tariff threat on eight European nations over Greenland and his mooted “Board of Peace.” While Washington has since paused the duties, the bloc is freezing a new trade pact and weighing its anti-coercion tool—its first direct…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Washington’s overnight volte-face on its Greenland gambit is less a diplomatic thaw than a market-driven reality check. After the S&P 500 clawed back 1.2 % when President Trump scrapped his threatened 10 % tariffs on eight EU states, investors—not ambassadors—proved again that capital flows can discipline geopolitical adventurism. (apnews.com) Yet…

Evening Analysis – The Gist The European Parliament’s razor-thin 334-324 vote to dump the freshly-signed EU-Mercosur accord into the EU Court of Justice stalls a pact that would scrap tariffs on 90 % of trade across a 700 million-person market, equal to Germany and Brazil’s combined GDP in flow terms. (apnews.com) The referral exposes a…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Russia’s pre-dawn launch of more than 300 drones and missiles shattered Kyiv’s grid, cutting heat to 5,635 buildings in –20 °C cold and knocking out up to 8.5 GW of national generating capacity—roughly one-third of winter demand. (apnews.com) Beyond the humanitarian cost, the strikes escalate Moscow’s systematic “energy-war” strategy: every…

Evening Analysis – The Gist President Trump’s demand that Denmark “sell” Greenland—backed by escalating tariffs that rise from 10 % on 1 February to 25 % by June—has already shaved 3-4 % off EU-exposed equities, weakened the dollar and driven gold above $4,700/oz. (apnews.com) The episode reprises two cautionary tales: Smoot-Hawley (1930), where protectionism deepened…