Category: Uncategorized

Evening Analysis – The Gist Global markets are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s third 25-bp cut of 2025, which futures put at an 89 % likelihood, dropping the policy band to 3.50-3.75 %. Ten-year Treasuries still hover near 4.19 %, and the MSCI World index slipped 0.16 % as traders stayed in “Fed headlights.” (reuters.com)…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The U.S.–brokered Gaza cease-fire is poised to enter its fraught “Phase 2”: Hamas must return the last Israeli remains; Israel must lift blockades and thin its troops; and a multinational force must deploy—yet none of these pillars is locked in. Hamas is already accusing Israel of 370 post-truce killings and…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Google’s dominance is colliding head-on with Europe’s new AI frontier. Brussels opened a fresh antitrust probe today into whether the company siphons publishers’ and YouTube creators’ material to feed “AI Overviews” without fair terms—its second EU case in a month and the fifth major investigation since 2017, when cumulative Google…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Paramount’s $108 billion all-cash raid on Warner Bros Discovery—$30 a share, 50 % richer in cash than Netflix’s accepted $72 billion mix—signals that global entertainment is consolidating even faster than regulators can count subscribers. Backed by Ellison money, Gulf sovereign funds and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, the bid weds Wall…

Evening Analysis – The Gist The UN has slashed next year’s humanitarian appeal to $23-33 billion—barely half of 2025’s request—after donor contributions collapsed to a decade-low $12-15 billion. Aid chief Tom Fletcher warns 250 million people need help, yet only 87 million can be targeted, with Gaza ($4 billion), Sudan and Syria at the top…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Thailand’s decision to bomb Cambodian positions hours ago shatters a U.S.– and ASEAN-brokered truce that had barely survived five months. One Thai soldier is dead, four wounded, and Bangkok is now evacuating 385,000 civilians; the July round displaced 300,000 and killed 48. This is the border’s worst flare-up since the…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Russia’s overnight barrage – 653 drones and 51 missiles, the largest single-day strike since the invasion began – punched holes in power plants across eight Ukrainian regions, blacked out Kremenchuk’s refinery hub and forced nuclear units to throttle down. 585 drones and 30 missiles were intercepted, yet at least one…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Beijing’s J-15s twice “painted” Japanese F-15s near Okinawa on Saturday, activating fire-control radar—an act of pre-attack intimidation unseen between the two air forces since a 2013 naval incident. Tokyo’s protest, backed by Washington and Canberra, underscores how quickly a cockpit glare can ripple through the $5 trn of annual commerce…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Washington’s newly-minted National Security Strategy sharpens the United States’ long-range sights on Taiwan, mentioning the island eight times and pledging “military overmatch” across the first-island chain. The document lands as China conducts its largest maritime drill this year, underscoring the region’s hair-trigger physics and the fact that 90 % of…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Good morning. French President Emmanuel Macron’s swift repudiation of Der Spiegel’s leaked-call claims is more than reputational tidying; it is a stress-test of the West’s ability to keep a single diplomatic front as Washington and Moscow grope toward a cease-fire. Speaking in China, Macron insisted that “unity between Americans and…