Category: Uncategorized

Evening Analysis – The Gist Beirut’s political theatre turned combustible again today. Hezbollah ministers stormed out of cabinet as a U.S.–backed army plan to monopolise all heavy weapons resurfaced, while Israel privately notified Washington that it is “preparing a limited ground incursion” across the Lebanese border. The militant movement warns disarmament is impossible until Israel…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The August U-S jobs print landed with a thud: just 22 000 payroll gains and an unemployment jump to 4.3 percent, the steepest rate since 2021. Futures cheered on the prospect of cheaper money—10-year Treasuries dived to 4.07 percent—but the “bad-news-is-good-news” reflex feels brittle. (reuters.com) Look past the headline and…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Europe has just dropped a €2.95 billion ($3.5 billion) antitrust hammer on Google’s ad-tech empire, accusing it of “self-preferencing” its AdX exchange and publisher server since 2014 and giving the firm 60 days to propose remedies or face structural break-up options. It is the bloc’s fourth penalty against the company…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Wildfire smoke has morphed from a seasonal irritant into a global health emergency. A fresh World Meteorological Organization audit finds that 2024-25 fires injected enough fine-particle soot to rival emissions from every car and factory on Earth, helping drive 4.5 million premature deaths a year (reuters.com). In Europe, a World…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Russia’s war-inflated boom is curdling fast. Within 24 hours the central bank’s policy rate sits at a punishing 19% after an emergency hike, and Sberbank’s chief warns that the economy has already slipped into “technical stagnation” with growth forecasts cut to 1.5% for 2025(reuters.com, apnews.com, ft.com). Why it matters: every…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Thailand’s political kaleidoscope has reshuffled again: Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul says he now commands 146 MPs and, crucially, the conditional backing of the 143-seat People’s Party, tipping him above the 247-vote threshold to become prime minister after Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s judicial ouster last week. Acting PM Phumtham’s petition to dissolve parliament…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Good evening— Beijing’s 80th-anniversary V-Day parade was less commemoration than calibrated deterrence. Xi Jinping, flanked by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, rolled out the People’s Liberation Army’s full nuclear triad—air-launched Jinglei-1, sea-based Julang-3 and land-based Dongfeng-61/31/5C—and paraded DF-17 hypersonic missiles capable of manoeuvring past existing U.S. interceptors. Reuters called it…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Japan’s 30-year yield piercing 3.28 % – its highest on record – is not an isolated tremor; it is the latest after-shock of a global bond quake that has already lifted U.S. 10-year Treasuries toward 5 % and Italian 10-year BTPs above 5 %. Investors are dumping long-duration debt in…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Gold pierced $3,550 /oz overnight while 30-year U.S. Treasuries flirted with 5 %, a tandem move last seen in the 1979 oil-inflation shock. Reuters, FT and AP all trace the surge to traders pricing a 90 % chance of a September Fed rate cut and hedging against President Trump’s threats…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Humanitarian arithmetic rarely shocks, yet yesterday’s UNHCR memo does: the agency will slash its 2025 budget to $8.5 billion—almost 20 % below plan—despite a record 122 million forcibly displaced people. The cut leaves a per-capita spend of barely $70 a year, less than one third of the 2015 level, and…