Category: Uncategorized

Evening Analysis – The Gist Ukraine’s overnight launch of at least 75 long-range drones ignited Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery—5 % of Russia’s refining capacity—killed one civilian and forced airports from Moscow to Rostov to suspend dozens of flights. (reuters.com) I read the strike less as tactical sabotage than as Kyiv’s inflation-adjusted strategy: energy is the Kremlin’s…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The U.S. Supreme Court’s grilling of the Trump administration over its 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs signals a potential re-balancing of power between Congress and the presidency. Justices across the spectrum questioned whether the 1977 IEEPA—written for narrow emergencies—can justify what has become the largest tax increase since 1993: $205 billion…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Washington’s quiet tabling of a UN draft to deploy a two-year international stabilisation force in Gaza is the boldest outside-intervention bid since the 1982 Lebanon mission. Reuters, AP and Al Jazeera report talks with Indonesia, Egypt and the UAE to supply troops while the United States stays off the front…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Washington has quietly circulated a draft U N Security Council resolution that would create a two-year International Stabilisation Force for Gaza, backed by a “Board of Peace” and World Bank funding. The text needs 9 affirmative votes and zero vetoes; early talks point to Indonesia, the UAE, Egypt and Turkey…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Berlin’s extra €3 billion for Kyiv in its 2026 budget lifts Germany’s pledged military support to €11.5 billion next year and pushes total German aid since 2022 above €40 billion, cementing its status as Europe’s paymaster for Ukraine’s defence. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s finance-defence tandem frames the top-up as routine “final…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Typhoon Kalmaegi (locally “Tino”) slammed into the central Philippines overnight, killing at least one person, flooding low-lying Samar and Leyte and forcing the evacuation of more than 20 000 residents. The storm packed sustained winds of 85 km/h and dumped up to 150 mm of rain in 12 hours, paralysing…

Evening Analysis – The Gist SM Energy’s all-stock launch-pad into the Permian — a $12.8 billion tie-up with Civitas Resources yielding a 823,000-acre footprint and projected $1.4 billion free cash flow next year — is less a one-off than the logical crest of a consolidation wave that has seen U.S. shale M&A top $70 billion…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist OPEC+’s Sunday pivot is telling. The cartel will still add a token 137 kb/d in December, but—having already lifted supply by 2.9 mb/d since April—will freeze further hikes through Q1 2026. Brent languishes near $65, while the IEA sees demand growth of just 0.7 mb/d next year against OPEC’s 1.4…

Evening Analysis – The Gist OPEC+ blinked today, approving a token 137 000-bpd rise for December but freezing any further hikes through March, warning of a looming glut while new U.S. sanctions threaten up to 2 m bpd of Russian exports. (reuters.com) The cartel is re-learning 2014’s lesson: oversupply begets price collapse, shredding fiscal cushions…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The Rapid Support Forces’ seizure of el-Fasher has spilled into wholesale slaughter: satellite images and WHO tallies show at least 460 people executed inside a maternity hospital, while witnesses count more than 1,500 dead across the city and 260,000 residents dispersed into the desert. (reuters.com) This is not an aberration…