Category: Uncategorized

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The Valdai forum in Sochi offered the clearest window yet into how Moscow will weaponise the new tariff wars. Vladimir Putin warned that pressuring India and China with punitive levies to curb Russian energy ties would “boomerang” via higher commodity prices and force the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep rates…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Global tax fraud isn’t a victimless white-collar crime—it is a quiet siphon on public budgets, now bleeding the EU of about €50 billion each year. European chief prosecutor Laura Kövesi’s warning in Athens comes as her office’s “Calypso” probe froze 2,435 China-linked containers and exposed at least €800 million in…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Gold pierced $3,895 /oz overnight—up 45 % year-to-date—after weak U.S. jobs data reignited bets on Fed cuts and pushed the 2-yr Treasury yield to a two-week low. Asian bourses instantly repriced risk: Taiwan +1.5 %, Korea +2.8 %, Nikkei +0.5 %. The flight to safety wiped 0.4 % off the…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Good evening, Washington has again weaponised uncertainty: at 00:01 EDT the US federal government shuttered after Congress failed to pass even a stop-gap budget. Roughly 750,000 civil servants were furloughed and another 1.4 million will work without pay; the Congressional Budget Office estimates a direct loss of $400 million per…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Washington has thrown down the gauntlet: President Trump has given Hamas “three-to-four days” to accept a 20-point Gaza plan that promises an immediate cease-fire, prisoner swaps and $10 bn in reconstruction aid, all under international supervision (reuters.com). Backed by Israel, Egypt and Qatar, the ultimatum lands amid a war that…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Polish police have arrested Volodymyr Z., the Ukrainian diver sought by Germany for the 2022 Nord Stream blasts that severed pipelines capable of carrying 55 billion m³ of Russian gas annually to Europe.‏(reuters.com) His capture revives the question few European leaders wish to confront: sabotage is no longer a metaphor…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The White House’s 20-point Gaza blueprint lands like a diplomatic thunderclap: a 72-hour ceasefire, a 1:7 hostage-for-prisoner ratio (250 lifers plus 1,700 detainees), and an International Stabilisation Force to police a demilitarised strip. Trump secures Netanyahu’s assent, yet Hamas remains silent – the plan’s Achilles heel. (reuters.com) Beyond the headlines,…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Good evening, Iraq’s long-stalled Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is flowing again, sending 180-190 kb/d of Kurdish crude to Türkiye after a 30-month freeze that cost Baghdad an estimated $35 bn in lost revenue. The tripartite deal brokered by Baghdad, Erbil and eight IOCs arrives just as OPEC+ signals a 137 kb/d November…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Russia’s heaviest barrage in four months slammed Kyiv and five other Ukrainian cities overnight, killing at least 4 people and wounding a dozen more; officials say 40-plus cruise, ballistic and guided missiles were fired, most during morning rush hour.(apnews.com) The timing is surgical: on the eve of the Washington-hosted NATO…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Russia hurled 595 drones and 48 missiles at Kyiv and eight other regions overnight, killing 4, injuring ≈70 and forcing Poland briefly to close its airspace. Ukrainian defenses intercepted most threats, yet a cardiology clinic and residential blocks were shattered—evidence that Moscow’s “military-only” narrative is fiction. (reuters.com) This barrage is…