Category: Uncategorized

Evening Analysis – The Gist Good evening, Mexico’s elite marines ended the 15-year reign of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera—mastermind of the CJNG and America’s top fentanyl supplier—yet his death lit the night sky across 20 states with torched buses and roadblocks, leaving at least 26 dead, 25 of them National Guardsmen. (apnews.com) History warns that…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Mexico’s military blow that killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera—worth a US $15 million bounty—was followed within hours by arson road-blocks and shoot-outs that paralysed air travel and shut schools across at least seven (some reports say twenty) states. (theguardian.com) History warns that king-pin removals rarely deliver security dividends. After Joaquín…

Evening Analysis – The Gist A single Supreme Court ruling has detonated Donald Trump’s tariff architecture—and his riposte, a 15 percent flat-rate levy on all imports, could lift the average U.S. duty to 13.7 percent while throwing $133 billion in already-paid tariffs into legal limbo. (ft.com) History rhymes: the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 hiked rates…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Pakistan’s overnight “intelligence-based” raids on seven militant camps across the Afghan frontier mark the sharpest escalation since the October 2025 border firefight that killed dozens. Islamabad’s move—confirmed by Associated Press, The Guardian and Deutsche Welle—follows two suicide bombings that left 13 soldiers dead in Bajaur and Bannu last week, tipping…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Good evening, With one midnight post, President Trump jolted the rules-based trading system—again. Defying Friday’s Supreme Court rebuke, he invoked Section 122 to lift his hastily-announced 10 percent blanket duty to the statute’s ceiling of 15 percent. The hike freezes an estimated $142 billion already collected under now-void IEEPA tariffs…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Washington’s 10-15-day ultimatum to Tehran is not a negotiating tactic; it is a market-moving countdown. Brent crude nudged $71.9 per barrel, a six-month high, within hours of President Trump’s threat and the dispatch of a second carrier strike group to the Gulf (investing.com). The signal to traders is clear: the…

Evening Analysis – The Gist A UN fact-finding mission finds the Rapid Support Forces’ October storming of el-Fasher fulfils three Genocide Convention criteria; some 6,000 people were slaughtered in 72 hours, within a war that has already killed 40,000 and uprooted 12 million Sudanese. (apnews.com) Washington’s swift sanctions on three RSF commanders matter, yet history…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Oil has thrust itself back onto the front page. Brent surged above $71.50—its highest since late July—while WTI punched past $66 as traders priced a 4-7 % two-day jump on mere whispers of a U.S. strike on Iran. Roughly one-fifth of global crude transits the Strait of Hormuz; talk of…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Brent crude punched through $71.7 while WTI hit $66.7 a barrel after President Trump said he will decide “within 10 days” on striking Iran, a choice now priced by traders as a 70 per-cent probability.(theguardian.com) Roughly one-fifth of world oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz; even a brief closure…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Geneva’s latest U-S-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks broke up late 18 February with both delegations conceding “progress” only on minor military items and none on core political issues; Zelenskyy again blasted Moscow for stalling while fighting rages along a 1,250 km front as the war nears its fourth anniversary. (apnews.com) That pattern…