Finland and Norway call Putin as a ceasefire holds in occupied Oleshky
According to ZDF, the leaders of Finland and Norway have each spoken by phone with Vladimir Putin. Separately, a ceasefire has held since overnight in Oleshky, a southern Ukrainian city occupied by Russia for four years. ZDF’s correspondent in Odessa called it “a chance.”
Two NATO-border states opening their own channels to Moscow gives Russia a way to show that Europe is not uniform. That helps the Kremlin in any later talks over sanctions and security guarantees. The local truce is a low-cost test. Neither side commits to a wider halt, and each can see how the other behaves. It follows weeks of Russian drone strikes that disrupted Starlink connectivity for Ukrainian units.
Israel votes, and turnout may decide whether Netanyahu stays
Israelis voted today in a race expected to be tight (ZDF). Ofer Kenig of the Israel Democracy Institute said high turnout in opposition-leaning areas could hurt Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He added that Netanyahu has previously mobilised voters in the final hours.
European governments have a direct interest. Their Middle East policy, arms export decisions and energy diplomacy depend on who forms the coalition.
Germany’s exporters turn upbeat while energy costs feed through to prices
The ifo institute’s export expectations index rose to 12.2 points in October from 9.0 in September, the highest since February 2022 (ifo). Carmakers drove the rise, reversing a clear drop in September. Machinery makers stayed optimistic.
Energy costs point the other way. After the Bab al-Mandab strait blockade, crude prices rose again, and gas and power prices hit their highest since late 2022 in mid-September (ifo). Firms’ price-rise expectations reached 22.7 points in September, up from 21.4. Ifo expects inflation to climb above 3% in coming months. Exporters gain from selling abroad. Households and domestic-market firms bear the energy bill.
London’s trade chief backs Burnham’s EU reset
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds says he agrees with Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s push for closer EU ties (Politico). A month ago he warned that repeated constitutional fights create “a lot of uncertainty for business.” Companies are now waiting to see what the UK actually negotiates.
Non-obvious angle: the EU budgets for climate damage, not only prevention
The European Commission today unveiled a climate-adaptation package that says cutting emissions is no longer enough (Politico). It follows a summer when the Rhine ran partly dry near Düsseldorf. Water, power grid and infrastructure spending will increasingly be set by physical risk. That favours utilities, engineering and insurance firms.
Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.
