Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos, head of the Bank for International Settlements (the central banks’ bank), and the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot, a former Dutch central bank chief, are the nominees to replace Christine Lagarde, who plans to leave the European Central Bank by 7 February, almost nine months before her term ends.

A Jefferies analyst rates Knot slightly more hawkish (keener on higher rates) and de Cos more dovish, so governments may choose on nationality, not policy. The Netherlands would gain a second president after Wim Duisenberg, the ECB’s first, while Spain has never held it and its government and opposition both back de Cos. Lagarde and Isabel Schnabel, a German board member, are the only women on the 27-member Governing Council and both are leaving, so it turns all-male unless women replace them.

In April 2024 de Cos answered the hawk-or-dove question with Lagarde’s line, “we are all owls”, Catalan outlet Ara reports; Knot calls himself a hawk.

The Gist AI Editor

Two candidates left in race to run the European Central Bank

European governments are set to choose between Spain’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos and the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot to succeed Christine Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank, according to the Wall Street Journal. The choice matters because the president chairs the body that sets interest rates for the 20 euro-area countries, so the pick will shape borrowing costs across the bloc.

EU prosecutors open a second fraud probe into Spanish high-speed rail

The European Public Prosecutor’s Office is investigating possible fraud involving EU funds for safety, signalling and communications upgrades on Spain’s Madrid-Seville high-speed line, Politico Europe reports. The probe follows the fatal train collision near Urda on 28 October, and it has led to searches at Spain’s rail safety agency and at the Court of Auditors, the body that audits public spending.

AST SpaceMobile to build its own rocket

AST SpaceMobile, a US satellite company that competes with SpaceX, announced it is building its own rocket powered by engines from Firefly Aerospace, Bloomberg reports. The move would let AST launch its satellites without relying on a direct competitor.

UN report links the UAE to Colombian mercenaries in Sudan

A recent United Nations report found that the United Arab Emirates helped fund and train Colombian mercenaries who fought alongside a Sudanese paramilitary force accused of war crimes and genocide, Bloomberg reports.

Stay tuned for the next Gist—your edge in a shifting world. The Gist remains independent and reader-supported. If you value news free from corporate or state interests, consider supporting our mission with a donation.

Contest to Succeed ECB Head Lagarde Is Officially a Two-Horse Race
— Wall Street Journal

Tech, Media & Telecom Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk
— Wall Street Journal

Burnham Vows to Change Benefit Eligibility for Young People
— Bloomberg

AST SpaceMobile to Build Own Rocket to Compete With SpaceX
— Bloomberg

EU prosecutors open second fraud probe into Spanish high-speed rail
— Politico.Eu

Copernicus says 2026 will breach the 1.5°C warming threshold

The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported on Friday that global temperatures will almost certainly average more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026, making it the second calendar year after 2024 above the Paris Agreement threshold and likely the second-warmest year on record (Deutsche Welle). The report arrives as the UN climate conference COP31 begins, and Germany’s environment minister Carsten Schneider is among those briefing the press beforehand (ZDF).

German firms pass higher energy costs on to customers

The ifo institute’s price expectations index, which measures the balance of German companies planning to raise prices, rose to 25.9 points in October 2026 from 23.0 in September (ifo). Crude oil and natural gas prices reached their highest level since 2022 in the second half of October, according to ifo business-cycle chief Timo Wollmershäuser. He expects inflation to keep rising at both producer and consumer level in the coming months (ifo). In September, ifo had already projected that inflation would climb above 3% after the Bab al-Mandab strait was blocked and oil prices jumped (ifo). Because energy suppliers are expected to raise electricity and gas prices in winter, households will feel the increase later than fuel buyers do.

Tesla ends Cybertruck production in Texas

Tesla chief executive Elon Musk said on X on Friday that the company will stop building the Cybertruck at its Texas plant in mid-2027, freeing capacity for the Cybercab robotaxi. It is unclear whether the Cybertruck will be built at another factory or dropped from the lineup (ZDF).

German self-employed report weak order books

ifo found that 45.7% of self-employed people in Germany report a lack of orders, and 19.5% of solo self-employed and micro-businesses see their economic existence as threatened, against 6.7% across the whole economy. ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber said both companies and private customers are holding back spending (ifo).

Catch the next Gist for the continent’s moving pieces.

Carsten Schneider zur kommenden UN-Klimakonferenz
— ZDF

Höhere Energiepreise werden zunehmend weitergegeben
— IFO

Kräftig gestiegene Energiepreise sorgen weiterhin für Preisdruck
— IFO

La ratification par le Parlement turc du « pacte de La Mecque » convoque pour l’opposition le souvenir douloureux des guerres ottomanes au Yémen
— Le monde

Global temperatures are set to exceed 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels in 2026, likely the second-warmest year on record
— Deutsche Welle

Tesla stellt Produktion von Cybertruck in Texas ein
— ZDF