Read a selection of past newsletters!
Subscribe to get the independent data journalism digests delivered to your mailbox.
2026-02-18 • Iran briefly closed the Strait of Hormuz during drills, affecting global oil flow. Markets were unfazed
Morning Intelligence – The Gist Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz for several hours during live-fire IRGC drills on 17 Feb, even as its foreign minister sat down with the US in Geneva for renewed nuclear talks. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG moves through this 33-km chokepoint; a shutd…
Read More2026-02-17 • Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington hold talks amid ongoing conflict. Diplomacy struggles as attacks continue.
Evening Analysis – The Gist Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington opened a third-round, U.S.-brokered dialogue in Geneva just days before the full-scale invasion’s fourth anniversary. While diplomats trade talking points, Russian drones and 29 missiles battered Ukraine’s power grid overnight, forcing m…
Read More2026-02-17 • Geneva talks open with Russia, Ukraine, and U.S.; war enters year four. Moscow demands
Morning Intelligence – The Gist Geneva’s trilateral talks opening today—Russia’s Medinsky, Ukraine’s Umerov, and U.S. envoys at the table—arrive under the shadow of a war entering its fourth year. Moscow insists that “the main issues, including territory” are on the agenda, signalling fresh pr…
Read More2026-02-16 • Ukraine’s drone strike on Russia’s oil terminal highlighted vulnerabilities, affecting markets and emphasizing strategic timing before Geneva
Evening Analysis – The Gist Good evening—Ukraine’s pinpoint drone strike on Russia’s Taman oil terminal did more than scorch tanks and wound two workers. It again revealed how relatively cheap unmanned systems can punch holes in a $70-a-barrel market: Brent futures jumped 1.4 % this morning on…
Read More2026-02-16 • Europe warned by military leaders: Without “whole-of-society defence,” risks Russian threats. Rear
Morning Intelligence – The Gist Europe woke up to a rare joint warning from Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton and Gen. Carsten Breuer: without a “whole-of-society defence,” the continent risks inviting Russian opportunism. Their op-ed—published simultaneously in London and Berlin this morning…
Read More2026-02-15 • Russian and Ukrainian drones continue attacks amid US-brokered talks; Moscow targets utilities, Kyiv hits export
Evening Analysis – The Gist Russian and Ukrainian drones traded lethal blows overnight—Odesa lost power and an elderly resident, while fires raged at Russia’s Taman oil port—hours before U.S.-brokered negotiations resume in Geneva. Kyiv estimates Russia has lost 65,000 troops in just the past …
Read More2026-02-15 • Zelenskyy demands a 20-year U.S. security guarantee and European funding for air defenses
Morning Intelligence – The Gist Volodymyr Zelenskyy used the Munich Security Conference to fire a flare across Washington’s bow: no peace deal, no elections, and certainly no territorial concessions unless Kyiv receives a legally-binding, multi-decade U.S. security guarantee. The Ukrainian lea…
Read More2026-02-14 • CPI dropped to 2.4%, leading traders to adjust Treasury yields. Core inflation’s slowing
Evening Analysis – The Gist After January’s CPI slipped to 2.4 %—its lowest since mid-2021—traders halved two-year Treasury yields to 3.42 % and priced a 50 % chance of a third Fed cut this year.(ft.com) Core inflation eased to 2.5 %, a level that historically preceded rate cuts in 1998 and 20…
Read More2026-02-14 • Pentagon plans “sustained” strikes on Iran; oil nears $70. Diplomacy
Morning Intelligence – The Gist Washington’s latest disclosure is stark: Pentagon planners expect a “sustained, week-slong” air-sea campaign if President Trump orders strikes on Iran.(japantimes.co.jp) A second carrier group is already en-route; crude has lurched back toward $70 as traders re-…
Read More2026-02-13 • CPI fell to 2.4% in January, markets adjusted, but real wages remain low
Evening Analysis – The Gist U.S. headline CPI slid to 2.4 % in January—its lowest since March 2021 and beneath the 2.5 % consensus—while core inflation matched 2.5 % (ft.com). Markets instantly repriced: two-year Treasury yields fell to 3.42 %, and futures now assign a 50 % chance of a third F…
Read More