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Evening Analysis – The Gist Kyiv’s vow to abandon its NATO ambition in exchange for U.S.–EU-led security guarantees resets the strategic chessboard. The concession—announced as Berlin peace talks open—meets a core Kremlin demand yet stops short of yielding territory. Ukraine’s constitutionally…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Russia’s overnight drone-and-missile blitz cut power to more than a million Ukrainians, while Kyiv’s drones killed two inside Russia’s Saratov region.(apnews.com) Yet on Monday Berlin will host President Zelenskyy, U.S. envoys and EU leaders to hash out the “fun…

Evening Analysis – The Gist Israel’s assassination of Raed Saed—described by the IDF as the “second-in-command” of Hamas’s armed wing—signals that the October cease-fire is now little more than diplomatic fiction. Five were killed and at least 25 wounded in the Gaza City strike, and Hamas has …

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Ukraine’s surprise counter-thrust in Kupiansk—confirmed by Reuters, AP and Al Jazeera—reversed three months of Russian gains and reportedly trapped “hundreds” of Russian troops (reuters.com). While the frontline town is small (pre-war pop. 25,000), its rail hub …

Evening Analysis – The Gist Australia’s under-16 social-media ban—enforced since 10 Dec and backed by fines of A $49.5 m—has now met its first Big-Tech revolt: Reddit’s High Court suit arguing the law tramples the constitutionally implied freedom of political communication and forces intrusive…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist Oil’s overnight lurch tells us that sea-borne sanctions have become the new front line of energy geopolitics. After U.S. commandos seized the stateless VLCC Skipper (off-Venezuela, laden with roughly 2 million barrels of crude), Brent jumped 0.7 % to $61.71 and …

Evening Analysis – The Gist Kyiv’s revised 20-point plan landed on Washington’s desk overnight, trimming the earlier U.S. draft by eight clauses and defying pressure to trade land for respite. Key flashpoints—Russian control of Siversk, a jointly run Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and a Donbas fr…

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The Federal Reserve’s 9-3 vote to cut its target range to 3.50-3.75 %—its third trim since September—lifted equities worldwide while pushing the dollar and Treasury yields lower, underscoring how one domestic decision still ripples through global asset pricing. …

Evening Analysis – The Gist Global markets are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s third 25-bp cut of 2025, which futures put at an 89 % likelihood, dropping the policy band to 3.50-3.75 %. Ten-year Treasuries still hover near 4.19 %, and the MSCI World index slipped 0.16 % as traders stayed in …

Morning Intelligence – The Gist The U.S.–brokered Gaza cease-fire is poised to enter its fraught “Phase 2”: Hamas must return the last Israeli remains; Israel must lift blockades and thin its troops; and a multinational force must deploy—yet none of these pillars is locked in. Hamas is already…